Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight as deep convection remains suppressed across the southeastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Low-level warm advection is forecast to strengthen across the FL Keys late in the period, but thunderstorm activity should remain west of the southern tip of FL through sunrise. ..Darrow.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight as deep convection remains suppressed across the southeastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Low-level warm advection is forecast to strengthen across the FL Keys late in the period, but thunderstorm activity should remain west of the southern tip of FL through sunrise. ..Darrow.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight as deep convection remains suppressed across the southeastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Low-level warm advection is forecast to strengthen across the FL Keys late in the period, but thunderstorm activity should remain west of the southern tip of FL through sunrise. ..Darrow.. 01/17/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 16 22:25:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 16 22:25:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z In the mid-levels, a large upper cyclone will settle over the eastern 2/3rds of the US as a strong Arctic air mass moves into the lower 48. Well below-average temperatures and widespread winter precipitation are expected to negate fire-weather potential through much of next week. However, the arrival of the Arctic air mass will allow strong high pressure to intensify over the Great Basin. This could support offshore flow and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions over parts of southern CA early next week. ...Southern CA... As the Arctic air mass intrudes the CONUS, ridging is forecast to intensify over the eastern Pacific late this weekend through midweek next week. As a result, high pressure should quickly intensify over the Great Basin, tightening offshore pressure gradients over southern CA. A shortwave trough is also forecast to move east of the upper ridge and deepen as it moves over parts of the Southwest D5/Mon. Model solutions have come into better agreement showing this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D5/Mon through D7/Wed. Ongoing very dry conditions, in combination with increasing potential for moderate offshore winds lend enough confidence to introduce 40% areas for D5/Mon and D6/Tues. Offshore winds could extended into D8/Thurs and beyond, but models still show considerable variability in the evolution of the relevant upper-air features. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z In the mid-levels, a large upper cyclone will settle over the eastern 2/3rds of the US as a strong Arctic air mass moves into the lower 48. Well below-average temperatures and widespread winter precipitation are expected to negate fire-weather potential through much of next week. However, the arrival of the Arctic air mass will allow strong high pressure to intensify over the Great Basin. This could support offshore flow and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions over parts of southern CA early next week. ...Southern CA... As the Arctic air mass intrudes the CONUS, ridging is forecast to intensify over the eastern Pacific late this weekend through midweek next week. As a result, high pressure should quickly intensify over the Great Basin, tightening offshore pressure gradients over southern CA. A shortwave trough is also forecast to move east of the upper ridge and deepen as it moves over parts of the Southwest D5/Mon. Model solutions have come into better agreement showing this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D5/Mon through D7/Wed. Ongoing very dry conditions, in combination with increasing potential for moderate offshore winds lend enough confidence to introduce 40% areas for D5/Mon and D6/Tues. Offshore winds could extended into D8/Thurs and beyond, but models still show considerable variability in the evolution of the relevant upper-air features. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z In the mid-levels, a large upper cyclone will settle over the eastern 2/3rds of the US as a strong Arctic air mass moves into the lower 48. Well below-average temperatures and widespread winter precipitation are expected to negate fire-weather potential through much of next week. However, the arrival of the Arctic air mass will allow strong high pressure to intensify over the Great Basin. This could support offshore flow and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions over parts of southern CA early next week. ...Southern CA... As the Arctic air mass intrudes the CONUS, ridging is forecast to intensify over the eastern Pacific late this weekend through midweek next week. As a result, high pressure should quickly intensify over the Great Basin, tightening offshore pressure gradients over southern CA. A shortwave trough is also forecast to move east of the upper ridge and deepen as it moves over parts of the Southwest D5/Mon. Model solutions have come into better agreement showing this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D5/Mon through D7/Wed. Ongoing very dry conditions, in combination with increasing potential for moderate offshore winds lend enough confidence to introduce 40% areas for D5/Mon and D6/Tues. Offshore winds could extended into D8/Thurs and beyond, but models still show considerable variability in the evolution of the relevant upper-air features. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z In the mid-levels, a large upper cyclone will settle over the eastern 2/3rds of the US as a strong Arctic air mass moves into the lower 48. Well below-average temperatures and widespread winter precipitation are expected to negate fire-weather potential through much of next week. However, the arrival of the Arctic air mass will allow strong high pressure to intensify over the Great Basin. This could support offshore flow and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions over parts of southern CA early next week. ...Southern CA... As the Arctic air mass intrudes the CONUS, ridging is forecast to intensify over the eastern Pacific late this weekend through midweek next week. As a result, high pressure should quickly intensify over the Great Basin, tightening offshore pressure gradients over southern CA. A shortwave trough is also forecast to move east of the upper ridge and deepen as it moves over parts of the Southwest D5/Mon. Model solutions have come into better agreement showing this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D5/Mon through D7/Wed. Ongoing very dry conditions, in combination with increasing potential for moderate offshore winds lend enough confidence to introduce 40% areas for D5/Mon and D6/Tues. Offshore winds could extended into D8/Thurs and beyond, but models still show considerable variability in the evolution of the relevant upper-air features. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z In the mid-levels, a large upper cyclone will settle over the eastern 2/3rds of the US as a strong Arctic air mass moves into the lower 48. Well below-average temperatures and widespread winter precipitation are expected to negate fire-weather potential through much of next week. However, the arrival of the Arctic air mass will allow strong high pressure to intensify over the Great Basin. This could support offshore flow and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions over parts of southern CA early next week. ...Southern CA... As the Arctic air mass intrudes the CONUS, ridging is forecast to intensify over the eastern Pacific late this weekend through midweek next week. As a result, high pressure should quickly intensify over the Great Basin, tightening offshore pressure gradients over southern CA. A shortwave trough is also forecast to move east of the upper ridge and deepen as it moves over parts of the Southwest D5/Mon. Model solutions have come into better agreement showing this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D5/Mon through D7/Wed. Ongoing very dry conditions, in combination with increasing potential for moderate offshore winds lend enough confidence to introduce 40% areas for D5/Mon and D6/Tues. Offshore winds could extended into D8/Thurs and beyond, but models still show considerable variability in the evolution of the relevant upper-air features. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning; however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. Read more