Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more