Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more