Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

MD 0036 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western North Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190708Z - 190915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible. Areas near the coast with upper 60s F dewpoints will have the greatest risk. A watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop in a warm advection zone offshore near the Florida Big Bend. This activity is expected to continue slowly eastward during the overnight. Ahead of these storms, moisture continues to move northward. As dewpoints reach the upper 60s F, forecast soundings suggest storms will be at least near surface based. Strong low/mid-level winds will promote some storm organization and potential for low-level rotation. The main limiting factor will be buoyancy, particularly inland from the immediate coast. Based on KTLH radar imagery, the current band of storms has shown modest increase in intensity and some areas of weak low-level rotation. Strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible should an organized storm move ashore coincident with upper 60s F dewpoints. ..Wendt/Hart.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29278465 29398459 29828347 29908294 29738249 29478236 29268236 28968328 28888424 28988470 29278465 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more