Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more