Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more