Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning; however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning; however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning; however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning; however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning; however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime -- surrounding a cyclone settling slowly southward over Hudson's Bay -- will continue to encompass nearly all of North America Saturday. As this occurs, a surface low should continue to occlude over northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. By the end of the period, the front should be shifting off the New England coast, already off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts, and moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the front crosses the Southeast, showers -- and a few thunderstorms, will continue in the preceding, weakly unstable airmass. The forecast weak lapse rates/lack of appreciable instability, and weakly stable near-surface layer, suggests little if any risk for strong/severe storms. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime -- surrounding a cyclone settling slowly southward over Hudson's Bay -- will continue to encompass nearly all of North America Saturday. As this occurs, a surface low should continue to occlude over northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. By the end of the period, the front should be shifting off the New England coast, already off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts, and moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the front crosses the Southeast, showers -- and a few thunderstorms, will continue in the preceding, weakly unstable airmass. The forecast weak lapse rates/lack of appreciable instability, and weakly stable near-surface layer, suggests little if any risk for strong/severe storms. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime -- surrounding a cyclone settling slowly southward over Hudson's Bay -- will continue to encompass nearly all of North America Saturday. As this occurs, a surface low should continue to occlude over northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. By the end of the period, the front should be shifting off the New England coast, already off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts, and moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the front crosses the Southeast, showers -- and a few thunderstorms, will continue in the preceding, weakly unstable airmass. The forecast weak lapse rates/lack of appreciable instability, and weakly stable near-surface layer, suggests little if any risk for strong/severe storms. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime -- surrounding a cyclone settling slowly southward over Hudson's Bay -- will continue to encompass nearly all of North America Saturday. As this occurs, a surface low should continue to occlude over northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. By the end of the period, the front should be shifting off the New England coast, already off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts, and moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the front crosses the Southeast, showers -- and a few thunderstorms, will continue in the preceding, weakly unstable airmass. The forecast weak lapse rates/lack of appreciable instability, and weakly stable near-surface layer, suggests little if any risk for strong/severe storms. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime -- surrounding a cyclone settling slowly southward over Hudson's Bay -- will continue to encompass nearly all of North America Saturday. As this occurs, a surface low should continue to occlude over northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. By the end of the period, the front should be shifting off the New England coast, already off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts, and moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the front crosses the Southeast, showers -- and a few thunderstorms, will continue in the preceding, weakly unstable airmass. The forecast weak lapse rates/lack of appreciable instability, and weakly stable near-surface layer, suggests little if any risk for strong/severe storms. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime -- surrounding a cyclone settling slowly southward over Hudson's Bay -- will continue to encompass nearly all of North America Saturday. As this occurs, a surface low should continue to occlude over northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. By the end of the period, the front should be shifting off the New England coast, already off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts, and moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the front crosses the Southeast, showers -- and a few thunderstorms, will continue in the preceding, weakly unstable airmass. The forecast weak lapse rates/lack of appreciable instability, and weakly stable near-surface layer, suggests little if any risk for strong/severe storms. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more