Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak mid-level disturbance is ejecting across northeast Mexico toward deep south TX early this evening. This feature should encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of an offshore coastal boundary tonight. 00z sounding from BRO exhibits a modestly steep 3-6km lapse rate (7 C/km), and while moist, MUCAPE is only 100 J/kg. Lapse rates will likely remain a bit too weak, given the moisture, for updrafts to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak mid-level disturbance is ejecting across northeast Mexico toward deep south TX early this evening. This feature should encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of an offshore coastal boundary tonight. 00z sounding from BRO exhibits a modestly steep 3-6km lapse rate (7 C/km), and while moist, MUCAPE is only 100 J/kg. Lapse rates will likely remain a bit too weak, given the moisture, for updrafts to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak mid-level disturbance is ejecting across northeast Mexico toward deep south TX early this evening. This feature should encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of an offshore coastal boundary tonight. 00z sounding from BRO exhibits a modestly steep 3-6km lapse rate (7 C/km), and while moist, MUCAPE is only 100 J/kg. Lapse rates will likely remain a bit too weak, given the moisture, for updrafts to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 14 22:18:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 14 22:18:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are unclear. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with upper-level flow and offshore gradients. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are unclear. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with upper-level flow and offshore gradients. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are unclear. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with upper-level flow and offshore gradients. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are unclear. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with upper-level flow and offshore gradients. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors. Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors. Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors. Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors. Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors. Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more