Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more