Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will advance slowly eastward Thursday, while the next feature -- a short-wave trough over western Canada -- digs southeastward, moving into the northwestern/north-central U.S. overnight. At the surface, cold/dry/stable conditions will persist. A pronounced cold front, associated with the digging/western upper system, will likewise shift southeastward out of Canada, but preceding high pressure will preclude thunder potential ahead of the front -- and elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will advance slowly eastward Thursday, while the next feature -- a short-wave trough over western Canada -- digs southeastward, moving into the northwestern/north-central U.S. overnight. At the surface, cold/dry/stable conditions will persist. A pronounced cold front, associated with the digging/western upper system, will likewise shift southeastward out of Canada, but preceding high pressure will preclude thunder potential ahead of the front -- and elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will advance slowly eastward Thursday, while the next feature -- a short-wave trough over western Canada -- digs southeastward, moving into the northwestern/north-central U.S. overnight. At the surface, cold/dry/stable conditions will persist. A pronounced cold front, associated with the digging/western upper system, will likewise shift southeastward out of Canada, but preceding high pressure will preclude thunder potential ahead of the front -- and elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will advance slowly eastward Thursday, while the next feature -- a short-wave trough over western Canada -- digs southeastward, moving into the northwestern/north-central U.S. overnight. At the surface, cold/dry/stable conditions will persist. A pronounced cold front, associated with the digging/western upper system, will likewise shift southeastward out of Canada, but preceding high pressure will preclude thunder potential ahead of the front -- and elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more