Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more