Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough progressing northeast along the middle TX Coast. This feature will lose its identity as it ejects into the central Gulf States later tonight. Scattered, shallow convection is noted ahead of this feature from the northwestern Gulf basin, extending northeast along the LA Coast into southern AL. Buoyancy is limited inland as surface dew points are only in the lower 50s along the coast due to easterly boundary-layer flow. Elevated instability should gradually increase overnight and forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy for lightning discharge with updrafts rooted near 900mb. Isolated thunderstorm potential continues. ..Darrow.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough progressing northeast along the middle TX Coast. This feature will lose its identity as it ejects into the central Gulf States later tonight. Scattered, shallow convection is noted ahead of this feature from the northwestern Gulf basin, extending northeast along the LA Coast into southern AL. Buoyancy is limited inland as surface dew points are only in the lower 50s along the coast due to easterly boundary-layer flow. Elevated instability should gradually increase overnight and forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy for lightning discharge with updrafts rooted near 900mb. Isolated thunderstorm potential continues. ..Darrow.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough progressing northeast along the middle TX Coast. This feature will lose its identity as it ejects into the central Gulf States later tonight. Scattered, shallow convection is noted ahead of this feature from the northwestern Gulf basin, extending northeast along the LA Coast into southern AL. Buoyancy is limited inland as surface dew points are only in the lower 50s along the coast due to easterly boundary-layer flow. Elevated instability should gradually increase overnight and forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy for lightning discharge with updrafts rooted near 900mb. Isolated thunderstorm potential continues. ..Darrow.. 01/13/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 12 23:28:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 12 23:28:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more