Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more