Severe Storms

MD 0032 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 102130Z - 110030Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC. DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible. ..Thornton.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 35038501 35278472 35438440 35708379 35938286 35778201 35168155 34408234 34118328 33678477 34028542 34178549 35038501 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 10 19:54:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more