Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0023 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...far east-central New Mexico...much of the TX Panhandle...and southwest and south-central Oklahoma. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 091326Z - 091630Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates expected this morning. DISCUSSION...Moderate snowfall has expanded across the Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. As the boundary layer continues to moisten and isentropic ascent maximizes this morning, expect heavy snow with rates of 1 inch per hour from far eastern New Mexico to south-central Oklahoma. The heaviest rates are expected from 14Z to 17Z. Some locally higher rates, perhaps approaching 1.5 inches per hour, are possible across parts of the southern Texas Panhandle where a deeper dendritic growth zone and elevated convective instability (185 J/kg MUCAPE on the 12Z AMA RAOB) are present. After 17Z, snowfall rates will likely weaken across the entire region amid veering/weakening 850-700mb flow. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35040353 35520178 35560014 35429764 35189639 34929581 34369598 34219790 34460187 34270346 34620373 35040353 Read more

MD 0022 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...West Texas into north central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 091242Z - 091515Z SUMMARY...A mix of snow, freezing rain and occasional sleet is expanding from West Texas to the Red River. DISCUSSION...A precipitation shield has expanded across West Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and southern Oklahoma as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Many observation sites across West Texas have observed freezing rain this morning with relatively light accumulation. However, as precipitation intensifies, isolated greater accumulation amounts have been observed (KABI reported 0.14 inches of ice accretion between 11Z and 12Z), with this likely continuing through the morning. While some mixed phase precipitation may occur this morning while the boundary layer is moistening across Oklahoma and North Texas, expect mostly snow across this region by mid-morning given the thermal profile from the KOUN 12Z RAOB. Farther south, expect freezing rain to persist this morning before temperatures should rise above freezing by late morning as low-level flow/warm air advection strengthens. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31920225 33740148 34269947 34449781 34379690 33129725 31239960 30620038 30140132 30220209 31050242 31920225 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. through the middle of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. through the middle of next week. Read more