Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general pattern of a mid-upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS will persist through much of the extended outlook period, with the residual influence of an arctic air mass limiting buoyancy for the vast majority of the CONUS. There may be some potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of south FL by early Wednesday (late D4 into D5). However, forecast confidence in the sub-synoptic details is low given a low-amplitude midlevel trough crossing the northern Gulf of Mexico (with associated timing questions). The residual arctic air mass and a probable lack of substantial surface cyclogenesis suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general pattern of a mid-upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS will persist through much of the extended outlook period, with the residual influence of an arctic air mass limiting buoyancy for the vast majority of the CONUS. There may be some potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of south FL by early Wednesday (late D4 into D5). However, forecast confidence in the sub-synoptic details is low given a low-amplitude midlevel trough crossing the northern Gulf of Mexico (with associated timing questions). The residual arctic air mass and a probable lack of substantial surface cyclogenesis suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general pattern of a mid-upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS will persist through much of the extended outlook period, with the residual influence of an arctic air mass limiting buoyancy for the vast majority of the CONUS. There may be some potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of south FL by early Wednesday (late D4 into D5). However, forecast confidence in the sub-synoptic details is low given a low-amplitude midlevel trough crossing the northern Gulf of Mexico (with associated timing questions). The residual arctic air mass and a probable lack of substantial surface cyclogenesis suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale, mid-upper trough will dominate the CONUS, especially from the Rockies eastward. An associated arctic air mass will have enveloped the majority of the CONUS by Monday, including the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Thus, moisture/buoyancy will be negligible inland, with no appreciable threat for deep convection/lightning. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale, mid-upper trough will dominate the CONUS, especially from the Rockies eastward. An associated arctic air mass will have enveloped the majority of the CONUS by Monday, including the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Thus, moisture/buoyancy will be negligible inland, with no appreciable threat for deep convection/lightning. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible during the day across central Florida. ...Central FL during the day Sunday... Within a large-scale trough over much of the CONUS, an embedded mid-upper jet streak will move over the Southeast and off the Atlantic coast, as an associated surface cold front progresses southeastward across the FL peninsula during the day. Some increase in low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front during the day, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures in the 70s. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and buoyancy will remain limited (MLCAPE will likely peak in the 500-750 J/kg range). The combination of weak buoyancy and sufficiently long, relatively straight hodographs will support low potential for organized storms in a band along the cold front, perhaps with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible during the day across central Florida. ...Central FL during the day Sunday... Within a large-scale trough over much of the CONUS, an embedded mid-upper jet streak will move over the Southeast and off the Atlantic coast, as an associated surface cold front progresses southeastward across the FL peninsula during the day. Some increase in low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front during the day, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures in the 70s. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and buoyancy will remain limited (MLCAPE will likely peak in the 500-750 J/kg range). The combination of weak buoyancy and sufficiently long, relatively straight hodographs will support low potential for organized storms in a band along the cold front, perhaps with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE VICINITY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the mid/upper flow continues across the eastern Pacific into North America. Today through tonight, this is likely to include a consolidating, positively tilted large-scale trough encompassing much of North America. Beneath an associated confluent regime across the Rockies into the Appalachians, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southeastward to the lee of the Rockies. An evolving frontal zone on the leading edge of the colder air appears likely to be in the process of advancing off of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and through the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, by late this evening into the overnight hours. While stronger surface cyclogenesis becomes focused southeast through east of Hudson Bay, a weak wave may develop and migrate along the front across the eastern Gulf Coast through south Atlantic Coast vicinity by late tonight. In the wake of recent prior cold intrusions, the boundary-layer over the Gulf of Mexico is still in the process of recovering. However, models suggest that moistening within the pre-frontal southwesterly to west-southwesterly return flow might become sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization inland across the northeastern Gulf coast. ...Eastern Gulf States... A strong belt of initially westerly mid/upper flow (associated with remnant perturbations emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific) is in the process of overspreading the northern Mexican Plateau and Gulf Coast states. Including speeds of 70-90 kt as low as the 500 mb level, deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the evolving weak surface wave will be strong and supportive of a conditional risk for organized severe thunderstorm development. Given the weak nature of the frontal wave, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent and likelihood of generally modest low-level hodographs still seem likely to limit the overall severe weather potential. However, with weak boundary-layer destabilization forecast across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into at least the vicinity of coastal areas (from the western Florida Panhandle area by midday into areas near/north of Tampa by 12Z Sunday), the risk for severe thunderstorms may not be completely negligible. Isolated supercell development appears possible within the pre-frontal warm advection regime, initiating within the more buoyant offshore environment, before approaching coastal areas with a risk for producing a tornado or severe wind gust. This activity could spread or develop inland. However, the potential areal extent of any weak boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas, across portions of Alabama/Georgia/northern Florida is more uncertain. Based on a consensus of model output, this seems most probable in a small corridor across the western Florida Panhandle and perhaps adjacent portions of southeastern Alabama/southwestern Georgia and northern Florida this afternoon. Upscale convective growth into tonight may be aided by forcing associated with low-amplitude perturbations/coupled speed maxima within the strong mid/upper flow. By late tonight, this may include the evolution of an extensive pre-frontal line extending offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida into the northeastern Gulf, approaching the Tampa vicinity. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE VICINITY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the mid/upper flow continues across the eastern Pacific into North America. Today through tonight, this is likely to include a consolidating, positively tilted large-scale trough encompassing much of North America. Beneath an associated confluent regime across the Rockies into the Appalachians, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southeastward to the lee of the Rockies. An evolving frontal zone on the leading edge of the colder air appears likely to be in the process of advancing off of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and through the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, by late this evening into the overnight hours. While stronger surface cyclogenesis becomes focused southeast through east of Hudson Bay, a weak wave may develop and migrate along the front across the eastern Gulf Coast through south Atlantic Coast vicinity by late tonight. In the wake of recent prior cold intrusions, the boundary-layer over the Gulf of Mexico is still in the process of recovering. However, models suggest that moistening within the pre-frontal southwesterly to west-southwesterly return flow might become sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization inland across the northeastern Gulf coast. ...Eastern Gulf States... A strong belt of initially westerly mid/upper flow (associated with remnant perturbations emerging from the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific) is in the process of overspreading the northern Mexican Plateau and Gulf Coast states. Including speeds of 70-90 kt as low as the 500 mb level, deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the evolving weak surface wave will be strong and supportive of a conditional risk for organized severe thunderstorm development. Given the weak nature of the frontal wave, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent and likelihood of generally modest low-level hodographs still seem likely to limit the overall severe weather potential. However, with weak boundary-layer destabilization forecast across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into at least the vicinity of coastal areas (from the western Florida Panhandle area by midday into areas near/north of Tampa by 12Z Sunday), the risk for severe thunderstorms may not be completely negligible. Isolated supercell development appears possible within the pre-frontal warm advection regime, initiating within the more buoyant offshore environment, before approaching coastal areas with a risk for producing a tornado or severe wind gust. This activity could spread or develop inland. However, the potential areal extent of any weak boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas, across portions of Alabama/Georgia/northern Florida is more uncertain. Based on a consensus of model output, this seems most probable in a small corridor across the western Florida Panhandle and perhaps adjacent portions of southeastern Alabama/southwestern Georgia and northern Florida this afternoon. Upscale convective growth into tonight may be aided by forcing associated with low-amplitude perturbations/coupled speed maxima within the strong mid/upper flow. By late tonight, this may include the evolution of an extensive pre-frontal line extending offshore of the Carolina coast through northern Florida into the northeastern Gulf, approaching the Tampa vicinity. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity. ...01Z Update... Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the southern Rockies. This has been preceded by the east-northeastward acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States. One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday. In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight. Even with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to weak destabilization. Latest model output continues to suggest that this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around 05-06Z. ..Kerr.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity. ...01Z Update... Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the southern Rockies. This has been preceded by the east-northeastward acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States. One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday. In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight. Even with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to weak destabilization. Latest model output continues to suggest that this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around 05-06Z. ..Kerr.. 01/18/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 17 22:47:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 17 22:47:02 UTC 2025.