Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more