Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively from the NAM, depict scant elevated buoyancy developing amid a plume of initially steep mid-level lapse rates. With thermodynamic profiles suggestive of a predominant PTYPE of sleet at the surface, these potentially mixed-phase elevated parcels could support a few lightning flashes. While thunderstorm probabilities may be nonzero, they appear to be less than 10 percent at this time. ..Grams.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively from the NAM, depict scant elevated buoyancy developing amid a plume of initially steep mid-level lapse rates. With thermodynamic profiles suggestive of a predominant PTYPE of sleet at the surface, these potentially mixed-phase elevated parcels could support a few lightning flashes. While thunderstorm probabilities may be nonzero, they appear to be less than 10 percent at this time. ..Grams.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively from the NAM, depict scant elevated buoyancy developing amid a plume of initially steep mid-level lapse rates. With thermodynamic profiles suggestive of a predominant PTYPE of sleet at the surface, these potentially mixed-phase elevated parcels could support a few lightning flashes. While thunderstorm probabilities may be nonzero, they appear to be less than 10 percent at this time. ..Grams.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively from the NAM, depict scant elevated buoyancy developing amid a plume of initially steep mid-level lapse rates. With thermodynamic profiles suggestive of a predominant PTYPE of sleet at the surface, these potentially mixed-phase elevated parcels could support a few lightning flashes. While thunderstorm probabilities may be nonzero, they appear to be less than 10 percent at this time. ..Grams.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively from the NAM, depict scant elevated buoyancy developing amid a plume of initially steep mid-level lapse rates. With thermodynamic profiles suggestive of a predominant PTYPE of sleet at the surface, these potentially mixed-phase elevated parcels could support a few lightning flashes. While thunderstorm probabilities may be nonzero, they appear to be less than 10 percent at this time. ..Grams.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively from the NAM, depict scant elevated buoyancy developing amid a plume of initially steep mid-level lapse rates. With thermodynamic profiles suggestive of a predominant PTYPE of sleet at the surface, these potentially mixed-phase elevated parcels could support a few lightning flashes. While thunderstorm probabilities may be nonzero, they appear to be less than 10 percent at this time. ..Grams.. 01/19/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 19 17:22:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0037 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of North and west-central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191232Z - 191430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible this morning into early afternoon in parts of North/Central Florida. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Temperatures in central Florida have slowly risen into the low 70s F this morning. A line of storms moving eastward south and east of Gainesville have shown some intensification as they have encountered the modestly unstable air. Given the wind fields in place, this activity, though perhaps only weakly surface based, will be organized. Strong/damaging gusts may occur as muted surface heating continues into the afternoon. Though surface winds are veered, area VAD profiles do show sufficient SRH for a brief tornado in the strongest storms. The observed 12Z Tampa sounding showed relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. This, combined with modest MLCAPE, should keep the severe threat marginal/isolated. Additional storms are noted offshore west of the Tampa vicinity. These storms should eventually approach the shore and pose a similar wind gust/brief tornado threat. ..Wendt/Hart.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27758307 28818288 29458251 29848173 29888122 29328101 28598194 28058232 27648275 27688287 27758307 Read more