Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more