Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more