Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 30 17:55:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 30 17:55:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Monday. ...Carolinas... An upper trough/low will advance eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley on Monday, eventually reaching the western Mid-Atlantic Monday night. Low-level moisture should return northward across much of the Carolinas ahead of a cold front through the day. But, widespread cloudiness and poor lapse rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak instability Monday afternoon. While deep-layer shear over much of the Carolinas appears sufficient for organized updrafts, the marginal thermodynamic environment is expected to limit potential for organized severe thunderstorms across the Carolinas Monday afternoon/evening. ...Big Bend Region of West Texas... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move across northern Mexico and west TX on Monday. Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds are forecast to be present over the Big Bend region of west TX Monday afternoon. Although low-level moisture should remain quite limited across this region, isolated thunderstorms may eventually develop over the higher terrain and spread eastward through Monday evening. Weak instability should limit the overall severe threat, but small hail and gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorm that can develop. ...Deep South Texas... As a shortwave trough approaches from the west, low-level moisture is expected to gradually increase across deep south TX, especially Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should develop across this region, and deep-layer shear is also forecast to strengthen late in the period. At this time, it appears that any convection that develops should remain elevated. While small hail could occur with the more robust updrafts, the thermodynamic environment currently appears too limited to support severe hail. ..Gleason.. 10/30/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 10/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will briefly build over northern CA, while surface high pressure remains centered over the northern Great Basin. This will support a continuation of dry offshore flow across southern CA, with modest upper-level wind support during the afternoon and evening. Locally enhanced fire-weather conditions can be expected here, especially across wind-prone mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. However, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for fire-weather highlights. Farther east, a belt of enhanced westerly midlevel flow across the northern Rockies will favor surface lee troughing and dry/breezy conditions over the northern High Plains. While this could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, fuels do not appear overly receptive to wildfire spread and the threat appears too brief for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low today. ...Synopsis... An upper low evident in water-vapor imagery over eastern MO will continue to migrate northeastward this afternoon as a secondary impulse, currently over the TX Panhandle, follows in its wake towards the mid-MS Valley. This upper flow regime will largely result in neutral height falls and weak synoptic ascent over the MS Valley/Southeast states. A plume of mid-level isentropic ascent will be maintained from the FL Panhandle northward into Middle TN ahead of a weak cold front. Although morning soundings from within this plume show poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal buoyancy, latest IR trends show a few isolated convective towers, suggesting that a few lightning flashes remain possible. Warming temperatures near 500 mb will likely diminish the lightning potential by mid/late afternoon from Middle TN northward, which may result in removal from thunder probabilities in subsequent updates. Further south along the Gulf Coast, forcing for ascent will remain weak as the main mid/upper-level lift remains displaced to the north. Partial clearing along the coast will likely allow for some destabilization favoring deeper, and perhaps more persistent, convection this afternoon and evening. However, the overall severe potential remains low given weak forcing and diminishing shear through the day. ..Moore/Grams.. 10/30/2022 Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0558 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 558 TORNADO LA MS CW 291725Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially weakly rotating showers and thunderstorms should intensify this afternoon into early evening, as they slowly move northeast. Tornadoes and locally damaging winds are the primary threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Pine Belt MS to 60 miles southeast of New Orleans LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21020. ...Grams Read more

MD 1909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291711Z - 291815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon, tornado watch likely. DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows an increase in convective development across the region as broad mid-level ascent overspreads low-level warm/moist advection. Despite rich low-level moisture (surface dew point temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s F), instability remains rather marginal (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Widespread cloud cover is limiting diabatic heating, thus limiting further destabilization. Nevertheless, effective deep-layer shear of 40-45 kt will help to organize the developing convection. Radar trends support this notion, with at least transient/weak mid-level rotation now evident in several cells. This trend is expected to continue into the afternoon, which may yield a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Thus, convective trends will be monitored for the issuance of a tornado watch this afternoon. ..Karstens/Grams.. 10/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29089093 30549116 31429085 31648955 30838869 29948845 29048904 29089093 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the Ozarks/mid MS Valley Sunday morning is forecast to advance over the Midwest and OH Valley while weakening through the day. A weak surface low should likewise develop northeastward across the Mid-South to the lower OH Valley through Sunday evening while gradually occluding. A cold front will sweep eastward across the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states through the period. Low-level moisture will attempt to return northward from the central Gulf Coast into the TN/OH Valleys ahead of this system. However, mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints should mostly remain confined to the FL Panhandle and parts of southern AL. Mainly elevated showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Sunday morning from the western FL Panhandle to the Mid-South/lower OH Valley, which along with widespread cloudiness should limit daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also expected to keep boundary-layer instability weak at best. While a strong thunderstorm or two may scrape along the coast of the FL Panhandle Sunday morning, diminishing large-scale ascent is anticipated across the warm sector through the day as the upper trough moves well north of this area and a southerly low-level jet focuses over the lower OH and TN Valleys. The poor thermodynamic environment should also hinder updraft intensity. All of these limiting factors should keep the overall severe thunderstorm potential low on Sunday. ..Gleason.. 10/29/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into tonight. ...Central Gulf Coast... A closed mid-level low over the Ark-La-Tex will move north-northeast across the Ozarks through tomorrow morning. An associated 1012-mb surface cyclone over northwest LA will occlude as it drifts north into west-central AR and become poorly phased with the mid-level low. Despite the weakening nature of this synoptic wave, there will still be potential for severe storms in the warm sector across the Central Gulf Coast into tonight. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s across southeast LA and the MS coast will expand north into southern MS and southwest AL through this evening. Cloud breaks this morning, especially near the coast, has yielded surface temperatures already in the mid to upper 70s. This will support a persistent plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent, primarily related to the frontal circulation and low-level warm advection ahead of it, will aid in maintaining broken convection near the front that should intensify as cells slowly moves east from the Lower MS Valley into the southwest AL vicinity through tonight. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature will favor the likelihood of a few embedded supercells with the deeper updrafts, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening. Given the moist profiles and poor mid-level lapse rates, the main concern will be the possibility of a few tornadoes as well as isolated damaging gusts. ..Grams/Karstens.. 10/29/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for details. ..Squitieri.. 10/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will persist across the northern Rockies, favoring surface lee troughing and breezy surface winds over the northern and central Plains. However, a limited overlap of these winds and low RH should generally mitigate the fire-weather risk. Farther west, surface high pressure over the northern Great Basin will support continued offshore flow across southern CA. Dry/breezy conditions can be expected over the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, though these conditions appear too localized and brief for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 28 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 28 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts should be the main threats. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... An upper trough/low will move slowly from the ArkLaTex to the mid MS Valley and Mid-South Saturday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will accompany this feature, and overspread much of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast through the day. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop slowly northeastward across the lower MS Valley through Saturday evening. Rich low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, will attempt to return northward in tandem with a surface warm front across parts of this region. A cold front attendant to the surface low is expected to move eastward over much of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast through the period. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning along/near the cold front in LA. The airmass across southern LA into southern and central MS should slowly destabilize through Saturday afternoon, as both low-level moisture increases and daytime heating occurs. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE is forecast to reach 500-1000 J/kg by peak afternoon heating. Current expectations are for convection occurring along or just ahead of the cold front to gradually intensify Saturday afternoon. The enhanced mid-level winds associated with the upper trough/low and a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will likely foster 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicells and supercells appear possible. Even though the best lift associated with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet should shift to the north of the surface warm sector through the day, there should still be sufficient low-level shear farther south across southern LA/MS/AL to support a threat for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that can be sustained. Damaging winds may also occur with short line segments as the cold front advances eastward. The severe threat should gradually wane with eastward extent Saturday evening as convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. But, an isolated severe risk may persist along/near the AL Gulf Coast and western FL Panhandle Saturday night, as enough instability/low-level moisture to support surface-based thunderstorms should be present across these areas. ..Gleason.. 10/28/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible, mainly along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in southeast Texas to coastal southwest Louisiana from early evening into tonight. ...Western Gulf Coast... Primary severe threat this afternoon should exist across the Middle TX Coast, near the southern extent of a broken linear convective band that extends from the Heart of TX along a surface cold front. A severe storm or two may develop this afternoon out of pre-frontal confluence in a narrow corridor along the surface warm front. Farther south into the warm sector, low-level winds have become veered per time-series of Corpus Christi VWP data and the cold front will push offshore by mid-afternoon. In the wake of these storms, there are indications of convective redevelopment this evening near the surface trough bent-back to the north-northwest from the coastal surface low, immediately ahead of the mid-level low spreading east from central TX. Forecast soundings and observational trends suggest this activity will be increasingly elevated inland from the coast. Strong cloud-bearing shear would favor a threat for severe hail, although a predominant linear mode depicted in most CAMs suggest size growth will be limited. Areas along the coast in southeast TX to southwest LA still appear to have some potential for surface-based inflow parcels and a low-probability tornado/damaging wind threat into tonight. ..Grams/Wendt.. 10/28/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 10/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel low accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will track eastward across south-central TX, while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across south TX. As surface temperatures climb into the middle/upper 70s to lower 80s behind the front -- aided by downslope flow and efficient diurnal heating/mixing -- 20-30 percent minimum RH should develop across parts of south TX along the Rio Grande Valley. These dry conditions, coupled with 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. While light precipitation is possible along the cold front, the heavier precipitation should be displaced to the east of the Elevated highlights. Therefore, fuels should be at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. Farther north, a belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will cross the northern Rockies, favoring lee troughing and dry/breezy conditions over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, recent precipitation over these areas casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 27 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 27 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE MIDDLE COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of southeast Texas including the Middle Texas Coast. A brief tornado or two and hail appear most likely. ...Southeast Texas... A deep upper low/shortwave trough will travel eastward across TX, with gradual filling. A tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist roughly north of I-10, with rapid cooling aloft coincident with a "Pacific front." At the surface, an inverted trough will develop and translate from central into southeast TX as low-level moisture return occurs along a warm front. This will result in a tight instability gradient, limiting the northward extent of SBCAPE. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime well ahead of the cold front, but antecedent cool air over southeast TX may result in very little northward movement of the warm front. A sector of favorable instability and low-level shear will exist, and may favor a few supercells with brief tornado threat. The strongest 850 mb winds and thus SRH may remain on the cool side of the warm front, and models indicate much less SRH coincident with the most unstable air farther south. Therefore, any tornadoes are expected to be brief. Additional storms will occur along the cold front, which will have rapidly veering surface winds. Deep-layer shear combined with cool temperatures aloft will still favor hail, and a cell or two could produce substantial hail, including the potential for left movers. Heating will be limited, which will also mitigate overall severe potential. ..Jewell.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE MIDDLE COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of southeast Texas including the Middle Texas Coast. A brief tornado or two and hail appear most likely. ...Southeast Texas... A deep upper low/shortwave trough will travel eastward across TX, with gradual filling. A tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist roughly north of I-10, with rapid cooling aloft coincident with a "Pacific front." At the surface, an inverted trough will develop and translate from central into southeast TX as low-level moisture return occurs along a warm front. This will result in a tight instability gradient, limiting the northward extent of SBCAPE. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime well ahead of the cold front, but antecedent cool air over southeast TX may result in very little northward movement of the warm front. A sector of favorable instability and low-level shear will exist, and may favor a few supercells with brief tornado threat. The strongest 850 mb winds and thus SRH may remain on the cool side of the warm front, and models indicate much less SRH coincident with the most unstable air farther south. Therefore, any tornadoes are expected to be brief. Additional storms will occur along the cold front, which will have rapidly veering surface winds. Deep-layer shear combined with cool temperatures aloft will still favor hail, and a cell or two could produce substantial hail, including the potential for left movers. Heating will be limited, which will also mitigate overall severe potential. ..Jewell.. 10/27/2022 Read more