Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...MAINLY TONIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible from northwest Texas this evening into the Hill Country through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies have trended more zonal across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. However, a significant remnant short wave perturbation associated with this regime continues to dig across the Four Corners vicinity, and is forecast to reach the Texas South Plains vicinity by late tonight. Models suggest that further deepening of an embedded mid-level low is unlikely, but associated forcing for ascent may continue to contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas this afternoon and evening. In the wake of a more substantive preceding short wave trough (now accelerating across Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity), expansive cold surface ridging has overspread most areas east of the Rockies. The ridging is currently centered over the lower Great Lakes region, but extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Substantive low-level moisture is largely confined to the vicinity of the frontal zone across the Florida peninsula and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models suggest that northward return of this moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas Gulf coast vicinity is possible by late tonight, but low-level moisture return inland of coastal areas, through the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains, will be rather modest, even for the time of year. Destabilization probably will still be sufficient, coupled with the increasing forcing for ascent associated with the digging short wave trough, to contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening through tonight. However, much of the rest of the U.S. will remain generally dry and or stable, with negligible risk for thunderstorms. ...Texas South Plains into Hill Country vicinity... Despite the limited moisture, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, associated with remnant elevated mixed-layer air and daytime boundary-layer heating and mixing, probably will be sufficient to contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization by this afternoon. Largest CAPE may be confined to a rather narrow corridor along a zone of strong differential surface heating/developing dryline. This could include values on the order of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg by early evening, which may be maintained after dark with some further boundary-layer moistening and cooling aloft. Beneath increasing difluent and divergent flow aloft, focused low-level convergence/warm advection might contribute to the initiation of isolated to widely scattered strong storms across the southeastern Texas Panhandle prior to sunset. However, more widespread thunderstorm development likely will await the arrival of stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the Texas South Plains, mostly after 28/01-02Z. A few of these may pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. While the severe weather potential may generally wane toward 06Z as convection becomes increasingly widespread, conditions may remain favorable for isolated supercell development within a persistent focused area of stronger low-level warm advection on the southern periphery of the activity spreading southeastward into the Edwards Plateau near San Angelo/Junction through around 06-09Z. ..Kerr.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...MAINLY TONIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible from northwest Texas this evening into the Hill Country through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies have trended more zonal across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. However, a significant remnant short wave perturbation associated with this regime continues to dig across the Four Corners vicinity, and is forecast to reach the Texas South Plains vicinity by late tonight. Models suggest that further deepening of an embedded mid-level low is unlikely, but associated forcing for ascent may continue to contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas this afternoon and evening. In the wake of a more substantive preceding short wave trough (now accelerating across Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity), expansive cold surface ridging has overspread most areas east of the Rockies. The ridging is currently centered over the lower Great Lakes region, but extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Substantive low-level moisture is largely confined to the vicinity of the frontal zone across the Florida peninsula and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models suggest that northward return of this moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas Gulf coast vicinity is possible by late tonight, but low-level moisture return inland of coastal areas, through the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains, will be rather modest, even for the time of year. Destabilization probably will still be sufficient, coupled with the increasing forcing for ascent associated with the digging short wave trough, to contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening through tonight. However, much of the rest of the U.S. will remain generally dry and or stable, with negligible risk for thunderstorms. ...Texas South Plains into Hill Country vicinity... Despite the limited moisture, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, associated with remnant elevated mixed-layer air and daytime boundary-layer heating and mixing, probably will be sufficient to contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization by this afternoon. Largest CAPE may be confined to a rather narrow corridor along a zone of strong differential surface heating/developing dryline. This could include values on the order of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg by early evening, which may be maintained after dark with some further boundary-layer moistening and cooling aloft. Beneath increasing difluent and divergent flow aloft, focused low-level convergence/warm advection might contribute to the initiation of isolated to widely scattered strong storms across the southeastern Texas Panhandle prior to sunset. However, more widespread thunderstorm development likely will await the arrival of stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the Texas South Plains, mostly after 28/01-02Z. A few of these may pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. While the severe weather potential may generally wane toward 06Z as convection becomes increasingly widespread, conditions may remain favorable for isolated supercell development within a persistent focused area of stronger low-level warm advection on the southern periphery of the activity spreading southeastward into the Edwards Plateau near San Angelo/Junction through around 06-09Z. ..Kerr.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states today, with a surface low expected to surge southeast across west Texas as high pressure builds across the Interior West. Occasionally dry and windy conditions should develop by afternoon behind the low in parts of west Texas. However, questionable fuel receptiveness and marginally low RH suggest that fire weather highlights are not needed. Similarly, dry offshore flow is also likely across southern California, with Elevated conditions likely. Nonetheless, fire weather highlights have been withheld since fuels across the area are poorly receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma, southwest Texas, and the Texas Hill Country. ...Southern Plains... A strong shortwave trough will dig from the Four Corners region across NM and the southern High Plains Thursday into Thursday night. A surface lee cyclone initially over southeastern CO is forecast to develop southeastward across the southern High Plains through the day. An attendant cold front should likewise sweep southeastward over the southern High Plains. A prior cold front passage has shunted rich low-level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico. Still, modest low-level moisture return will occur across TX on Thursday. Most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will be in place ahead of the surface low/cold front across the southern High Plains by early Thursday evening. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough, steep mid-level lapse rates, and daytime heating should all contribute to the development of a narrow corridor of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon from the southeastern TX Panhandle into southwest TX. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any thunderstorms that can form in this environment. Current expectations are for convection to gradually develop late Thursday afternoon and evening near the surface low in northwest TX as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. This initial activity may pose an isolated threat for both large hail and damaging winds, with some potential for a supercell given long, straight hodographs forecast at mid/upper levels. Additional thunderstorms should eventually form along the cold front across southwest TX and quickly grow upscale Thursday evening/night, with an associated threat for isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail. A marginal severe risk may persist Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of the TX Hill Country as mainly elevated thunderstorms continue eastward along/ahead of the cold front, with increasing low-level moisture and warm advection acting to partially offset nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. At this point, the limited low-level moisture and weak instability forecast render too much uncertainty to include greater severe probabilities across the southern Plains. ..Gleason.. 10/26/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Surface low development will take place across the central and southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Rockies today. While breezy conditions will develop across the western portions of the Plains states, the surface airmass will be marginally dry at best, with fuels relatively poorly receptive to wildfire spread. While sparse Elevated conditions may occur across western Kansas by afternoon peak heating, significant wildfire-spread potential appears too low to warrant fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough moving toward the Northeast States/New England and a warm advection regime will influence the potential for isolated thunderstorms, mostly for coastal New England. Poor lapse rates will limit CAPE and any potential for severe storms. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today across north Florida/south Georgia along a cold front. A narrow corridor of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy, but forcing for ascent will continue to weaken with time, so storm coverage should remain isolated. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over Washington/Oregon will dig southeastward toward UT through tonight. Cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet will contribute to weak buoyancy, mainly this afternoon/evening from southeast Idaho to northwest Colorado. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible, but relatively cold temperature profiles suggest that most of the convective precipitation will be snow. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 10/26/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 25 17:38:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough over the OH Valley Wednesday morning is forecast to quickly advance across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday evening. A related surface low over Lower MI should likewise develop quickly northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward over much of the eastern states through the period. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning along the southern portion of the cold front, mainly across parts of southern/coastal GA and north FL. This region will become increasingly displaced from the large-scale forcing associated with the shortwave trough well to the north. Accordingly, coverage of convection should remain quite sparse through the day as the cold front advances eastward. Farther north, occasional lightning flashes appear possible with low-level warm-advection driven elevated convection across parts of far eastern NY into New England. Limited heating and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to hinder the development of much instability, with MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg. This weak instability should limit the overall severe threat across these areas, even though deep-layer shear is forecast to slowly strengthen through the day. Across the western CONUS, upper troughing should amplify through the period as an embedded shortwave trough digs from the northern Great Basin to the Four Corners region. The strong forcing and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the shortwave trough may encourage some convection to develop mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern UT into southern WY and western/central CO. Some of this activity may be capable of producing isolated lightning flashes, even though instability will likely remain quite meager. ..Gleason.. 10/25/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low will eject into the Mississippi Valley as high pressure begins to settle into the Plains states today. Patchy dry and breezy conditions are possible across western portions of the central Plains by afternoon peak heating. However, recent appreciable rainfall accumulations and the localized nature of dry/windy conditions across the Plains suggest that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and a tornado risk are possible, mainly across parts of eastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Tennessee through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee/Florida Panhandle... An extensive north/south-oriented broken squall line continues to move eastward from near the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers and across western Tennessee and eastern Mississippi as of midday, largely coincident with a cold front. Additional low-level moistening will continue to occur within the warm sector, with the highest moisture content (60s and some lower 70s F surface dewpoints) across eastern Mississippi into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle/southwest Georgia. Much of this corridor will also coincide with a strong belt of very strong mid-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds. The potential for damaging winds, at least on isolated basis, is expected to increase through the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/moistens. Given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH, a tornado risk will also exist. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1899. By late evening and overnight, the severe threat is expected to gradually diminish as the primary shortwave trough and enhanced low-level flow pass north of the weakly unstable warm sector that remains closer to the Gulf coast. Even so, a low-end wind damage and tornado threat may linger overnight across southeast Alabama, Florida Panhandle, into southwest Georgia. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/25/2022 Read more

MD 1899 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Areas affected...much of eastern Mississippi into western and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251621Z - 251845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in intensity along a cold front, with sporadic wind damage and couple tornadoes possible. DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms currently extends from the MO Bootheel into western TN, and due south across the middle of MS. While northern parts of this line are surging quickly northeastward coincident with the shortwave trough, southern portions of the line are moving slower toward the east. Recently, lightning has been observed over central MS where MLCAPE remains below 1000 J/kg. Surface observations show warming over southern MS with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 F, and this degree of warming may be needed for surface-based inflow parcels initially. With time, a few cells along the front may become severe, with sections of QLCS possible. Large scale lift is more favorable farther north, but low-level convergence along the front should be enough to initiate new storms later today given robust moisture. Large looping hodographs with 0-1 SRH to 300 m2/s2 will clearly favor rotation, with a conditional threat of brief tornadoes and corridors of damaging winds. The slow eastward movement of the line, coupled with diurnal considerations, do appear favorable for a discrete supercell or two later this afternoon, most notably where southern portions of the line interact with the stronger MLCAPE. Though models differ on storm coverage, any discrete supercells in this high shear environment could result in an isolated strong tornado within a relatively narrow zone. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32598955 33388937 34118920 34688917 35088880 35118802 35058731 34808696 34318691 33418712 32228754 31758798 31378859 31358931 31368957 31908959 32598955 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 24 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South across the Southeast States on Tuesday. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, though a tornado or two also will be possible. ...Synopsis... A compact and potent mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will bring intense midlevel flow to portions of the lower MS Valley and the Mid-South, with 80+ kt southwesterly flow forecast at 500 mb. In the low levels, a 50 kt southerly low-level jet will develop east/northeast from the lower MS Valley toward Middle TN through early evening. A surface low over northwest AR Tuesday morning will track northeast through the period, becoming positioned over lower MI by Wednesday morning. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the Lower MS, TN and OH Valley vicinity, extending from eastern IN/western OH into eastern TN/western GA and the middle FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the cold front across portions of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South and Southeast states. ...Lower MS Valley/Mid-South into MS/AL... Strong warm advection will support a wedge of 60s F dewpoints as far north as Middle TN to develop ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. Boundary-layer moisture will diminish with northward extent into the Ohio Valley/Midwest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected. Potential showers and cloud cover across the warm sector will limit stronger heating, and midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. This will preclude stronger destabilization, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range anticipated (with highest values further south). Nevertheless, the region will be under the influence for strong vertical shear and organized line segments are expected. The Marginal risk was expanded into parts of northeast AR/southeast MO near the surface low where ongoing thunderstorms could pose a threat for strong gusts and perhaps small hail for a few hours during the morning. Otherwise, severe potential should gradually increase through the morning/early afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms near the MS River shifts east across MS/western TN. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity along the strongly forced line of convection. However, enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs indicative of the rapidly increasing flow with height accompanying this system will support both mesovortex formation along line segments and rotating updrafts within any semi-discrete cells that can develop. A corridor of relative higher tornado potential (indicated by a 5 percent tornado probability) may develop where stronger low-level instability will overlap with favorable vertical shear across parts of MS/AL. ..Leitman.. 10/24/2022 Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241738Z - 242015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form this afternoon from South Plains into far southwest Oklahoma, with a few storms producing severe gusts or hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues near an east-west oriented front from the Lubbock area into northwest TX, with increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to form. While moisture is limited with low 50s F dewpoints, deep-layer lapse rates will continue to steepen as a strong vorticity maximum aloft moves east out of NM. The initial focus for development will be near the Lubbock area, near the surface wave along the stationary front. Visible imagery also shows CU forming along the surging cold front as well north of the Midland area. Given strengthening deep-layer lift, and a surface focus, scattered storms appear likely over the next few hours. The surging cold front will favor linear modes, though very strong deep-layer shear oriented across this boundary may lead to QLCS structures and/or cellular activity as well, producing hail. While a watch is not expected in the short term, trends will be monitored for expanding strong to severe storm coverage. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34460165 34990001 34969958 34669924 34359920 33859925 33019986 32260058 32180125 32290201 32670220 33120200 33950191 34460165 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... Widespread dry, occasionally breezy surface conditions should prevail across much of the Plains states tomorrow/Tuesday as a surface cyclone tracks eastward across the central MS Valley. While such conditions would necessitate Elevated highlights, the dampening of fuels by preceding rainfall suggests that fire-weather highlights are unwarranted this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and the middle/upper Texas Coast through tonight. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, although a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... A semi-organized but not overly intense squall line continues to progress eastward from near/east of I-35 across east-central Oklahoma and North Texas. Locally severe storms will remain a possibility with this convective line in the presence of strong/largely unidirectional deep-layer shear and modest lapse rates/buoyancy. Thinking remains that this regional severe threat this afternoon could remain a bit isolated/episodic across eastern Oklahoma/north Texas. A somewhat more organized/sustained severe risk should evolve by early evening, initially across central Texas and into eastern/south-central Texas tonight. This will be as the base of the southern Rockies upper trough ejects eastward and trends toward a more neutral tilt, with surface wave development/cyclogenesis expected from northwest Texas late this afternoon east-northeastward along the Red River vicinity and Ozarks late tonight. This scenario should allow for the southwest flank of the residual squall line/outflow to reinvigorate across central/east-central Texas by early evening, and for new development to occur near the east/southeastward-accelerating cold front tonight. Steady low-level moistening and modest cooling aloft could support upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE this evening across central/east Texas. Increasingly large/modestly curved hodographs may yield the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells ahead of or in the early developmental stages of the squall line, with evolving bowing segments otherwise likely. A couple of tornadoes may occur aside from possible wind damage. Given the large-scale trends and expected persistence of weak warm-sector buoyancy, at least some severe risk is expected to persist eastward through the late night/early Tuesday morning across far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana/possibly southern Arkansas, even if on just an isolated/marginal basis overnight. ...Northwest Texas/Low Rolling Plains... A spatially narrow/residual corridor of low-level moisture and buoyancy may be sufficient for the development of some low-topped stronger storms late this afternoon/early evening as lapse rates steepen. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds and/or hail could occur. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/24/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous outlook. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will progress across the Plains states today, preceded by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Appreciable rainfall accumulations should limit significant, widespread wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 23 17:49:02 UTC 2022.