Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more