Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well. Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat. From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well. Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat. From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more