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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ADM TO 15 NNE ADM TO 20 N MLC. ..HALBERT..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-240140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-019-023-029-067-069-085-089-095-127-240140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MLC TO 5 SW MKO TO 25 W GMJ. ..HALBERT..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-023-029-033-045-047-071-083-087-101-105-115-127-129- 131-137-141-143-149-240140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-021-041-061-077-079-097-101-135-240140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MAYES MUSKOGEE SEQUOYAH Read more

MD 2125 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 618... FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of west central Arkansas into southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 618... Valid 232230Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind may continue to increase through 7-8 PM CDT across parts of west central Arkansas into southeastern Oklahoma. A tornado or two also appears possible, mainly near and east of the Fort Smith vicinity. DISCUSSION...Strongest thunderstorm development has been focused north through northeast of Fort Smith AR, along the trailing flank of a stalled outflow boundary across northern Arkansas. This likely is being aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, along a 20-30 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet axis. More recent, intensifying thunderstorm development is ongoing along a trailing pre-cold frontal low-level confluence axis, southwestward across the Poteau/McAlester OK into the Red River vicinity near Sherman TX. Aided by inflow of seasonably high moisture content characterized by sizable CAPE, further intensification appears possible into the 00-01Z time frame, as lift continues to overcome inhibition. This may include increasing potential for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Tornadic potential is becoming a bit more unclear, as the stronger 850 jet is forecast to gradually shift north-northeastward to the cool side of the outflow boundary. However, the most favorable hodographs probably will remain focused in the vicinity of the boundary intersection, near and east of Fort Smith. ..Kerr.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34119645 34919540 35519403 35909366 35919239 35289211 34819303 34259483 33689631 34119645 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday, and across
the Dominican Republic beginning late Wednesday. The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic in a couple of days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be more conducive for development late this week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is
in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

MD 2125 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 618... FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of west central Arkansas into southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 618... Valid 232230Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind may continue to increase through 7-8 PM CDT across parts of west central Arkansas into southeastern Oklahoma. A tornado or two also appears possible, mainly near and east of the Fort Smith vicinity. DISCUSSION...Strongest thunderstorm development has been focused north through northeast of Fort Smith AR, along the trailing flank of a stalled outflow boundary across northern Arkansas. This likely is being aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, along a 20-30 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet axis. More recent, intensifying thunderstorm development is ongoing along a trailing pre-cold frontal low-level confluence axis, southwestward across the Poteau/McAlester OK into the Red River vicinity near Sherman TX. Aided by inflow of seasonably high moisture content characterized by sizable CAPE, further intensification appears possible into the 00-01Z time frame, as lift continues to overcome inhibition. This may include increasing potential for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Tornadic potential is becoming a bit more unclear, as the stronger 850 jet is forecast to gradually shift north-northeastward to the cool side of the outflow boundary. However, the most favorable hodographs probably will remain focused in the vicinity of the boundary intersection, near and east of Fort Smith. ..Kerr.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34119645 34919540 35519403 35909366 35919239 35289211 34819303 34259483 33689631 34119645 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125 ..HALBERT..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-023-029-033-045-047-071-083-087-101-105-115-127-129- 131-137-141-143-149-240040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-021-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-111-121-131-135-143-145- 240040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE Read more

WW 618 TORNADO AR OK 232005Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest into North-Central Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon and persist into the evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular with all hazards being possible. A strong tornado is possible (EF2-EF3). Large hail and severe gusts resulting in damaging winds are also possible with the more intense thunderstorms. The risk for damaging gusts will probably peak during the evening when upscale growth into a thunderstorm cluster is forecast. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Muskogee OK to 45 miles south southeast of Flippin AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ADM TO 35 N MLC. ..HALBERT..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-240040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-019-023-029-063-067-069-085-089-095-099-123-127- 240040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-240040- TX Read more

WW 619 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 232025Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Central and Southern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Supercell thunderstorms producing scattered wind damage, isolated large to very large hail, and a tornado or two are possible with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Durant OK to 20 miles southeast of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 618... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Leitman Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Narda, located in the eastern Pacific several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninisula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

MD 2124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Areas affected...Portions of North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232040Z - 232245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gusts will be possible in parts of North Texas. A watch is not currently anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...South of the upper-level trough, forcing for ascent is weak. Even so, strong heating (temperatures near 100 F) have promoted deepening cumulus within a prefrontal confluence band as well as near a weak cold front/surface trough farther west. Given observational trends, it appears probable that a few storms are possible this afternoon. Coverage over the next two hours is not certain. It may take the front moving southward to provide enough lift for additional storms. A very moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints), moderately steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z FWD sounding and recent TAMDAR soundings, and around 30 kts of effective shear suggests large hail would be possible. Severe gusts could also occur given steep low-level lapse rates. Limited coverage of storms may ultimately preclude a watch, but convective trends near the DFW metro will be monitored into the evening. ..Wendt/Smith.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32009807 31909870 32059938 32299956 33419864 33549816 33509786 33279725 33059676 32849682 32499715 32009807 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ADM TO 30 WSW MKO. ..HALBERT..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-019-023-029-063-067-069-085-089-095-099-123-127- 232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-232340- TX Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-023-029-033-045-047-071-083-087-101-105-115-127-129- 131-137-141-143-149-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-021-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-111-121-131-135-143-145- 232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... An upper-level short wave trough with an accompanying 50-60 knot mid-level jet will move into the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Strong westerly flow over the Cascade Range into the Columbia Basin coupled with an increasingly dry air mass will lead to an escalating fire weather threat across the Columbia Basin Region amid dry fuels. A 70% critical probability area was added to the lee of the Northern Cascades and western portions of the Columbia Basin, where stronger winds and potentially single digit minimum RH values coincide amid dry fuels. Farther south, an eastward propagating upper-level low over California will shift thunderstorm potential into the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin and Arizona. Marginal fuel receptiveness to spread as well as subsequent multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest should mitigate dry lightning ignition potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions across the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies are expected Day 4/Friday as a dry cold front moves through the region although unreceptive fuel conditions should limit fire spread potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slowly weakening upper-level low positioned over Southern CA are expected across the Southwest. Increasing atmospheric moisture, cooler temperatures and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit new ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The diffuse low over the Desert Southwest will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southwest and Great Basin through the weekend. A ridge amplifying over the central CONUS will yield warm and dry conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast uncertainty increases early next week with a potential deeper trough moving into western U.S. Increased southwest flow ahead of the trough could bring some fire weather concerns but timing uncertainty and marginal fuel dryness limits introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more