Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

320
ABNT20 KNHC 191725
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated
with a tropical wave, is located about 1300 miles southwest of the
Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for development of this system during the next few days
as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, by the
early to middle part of next week, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor changes needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Primary change with this forecast update was to expand the elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther south into portions of central Nevada, where several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected. The dry/breezy conditions may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers across portions of the northern Great Basin, where a combination of wet/dry thunderstorms have occurred over the last week. Lightning data over the past 24-72 hours suggests holdover potential is greatest across portions of central/northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho. Relatively stronger sustained surface winds (near 25 mph) across the Snake River Plain in Idaho will promote locally critical conditions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores from the past few days (several heavier cores had 0.5+ inch rainfall), and also in areas devoid of recent rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more