Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 498 FONT12 KNHC 240234 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 50(50) 11(61) X(61) X(61) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 438 WTNT22 KNHC 240233 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 54.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 54.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 55.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 75SE 55SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.9N 38.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.4N 31.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 65SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 40.1N 26.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 41.5N 20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 41.5N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 120SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 39.5N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 54.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MLC TO 30 NE MLC TO 35 SW BVX. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 618 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 24/03Z. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-033-045-047-071-083-101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141- 149-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN YELL OKC061-077-079-135-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MLC TO 30 NE MLC TO 35 SW BVX. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 618 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 24/03Z. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-033-045-047-071-083-101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141- 149-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN YELL OKC061-077-079-135-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MLC TO 30 NE MLC TO 35 SW BVX. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 618 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 24/03Z. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-033-045-047-071-083-101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141- 149-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN YELL OKC061-077-079-135-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MLC TO 30 NE MLC TO 35 SW BVX. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 618 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 24/03Z. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-033-045-047-071-083-101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141- 149-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN YELL OKC061-077-079-135-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 618 TORNADO AR OK 232005Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest into North-Central Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon and persist into the evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular with all hazards being possible. A strong tornado is possible (EF2-EF3). Large hail and severe gusts resulting in damaging winds are also possible with the more intense thunderstorms. The risk for damaging gusts will probably peak during the evening when upscale growth into a thunderstorm cluster is forecast. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Muskogee OK to 45 miles south southeast of Flippin AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0620 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0620 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-240240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-019-023-029-067-069-085-089-095-127-240240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-240240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE COOKE FANNIN Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MLC TO 20 NNE MLC TO 20 WSW HRO TO 30 NNW BVX. ..HALBERT..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-033-045-047-071-083-101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141- 149-240240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN NEWTON PERRY POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN STONE VAN BUREN YELL OKC061-077-079-135-240240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat does persist. ...01z Update... A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV, and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments, and a few supercells. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2025 Read more