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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... A positively tilted mid-level trough/low extending from the Great Lakes to southern Plains will translate slowly eastward today while gradually amplifying. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south-southeastward across the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley through the period, with a weak low forecast to gradually develop towards the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by late tonight. Ongoing convection across north-central TX and the southern AR vicinity has remained mostly sub-severe early this morning, with the TX thunderstorms post-frontal and likely somewhat elevated. The activity across southern AR is being aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet, and ascent preceding a mid-level shortwave trough with attendant 40-50 kt westerly jet over OK. Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur along/south of the front through this afternoon, with filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain generally poor, which may tend to limit updraft strength to some extent. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear associated with the shortwave trough should aid in updraft organization, with multicell clusters anticipated to develop and spread eastward across much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon and evening. Areas along/north of the ongoing convection in southern AR may struggle to destabilize, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, the stronger mid-level flow/shear attendant to the shortwave trough may foster occasional damaging winds if stronger convection can be sustained. Locations south/east of the thunderstorms this morning will likely realize greater instability as diurnal heating occurs, but will remain mostly displaced from the stronger mid-level flow. This suggests convection will probably tend to be less organized with southward extent, especially into coastal/south TX. But, isolated severe/damaging winds may still occur as low-level lapse rates steepen though the day. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... A positively tilted mid-level trough/low extending from the Great Lakes to southern Plains will translate slowly eastward today while gradually amplifying. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south-southeastward across the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley through the period, with a weak low forecast to gradually develop towards the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by late tonight. Ongoing convection across north-central TX and the southern AR vicinity has remained mostly sub-severe early this morning, with the TX thunderstorms post-frontal and likely somewhat elevated. The activity across southern AR is being aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet, and ascent preceding a mid-level shortwave trough with attendant 40-50 kt westerly jet over OK. Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur along/south of the front through this afternoon, with filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain generally poor, which may tend to limit updraft strength to some extent. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear associated with the shortwave trough should aid in updraft organization, with multicell clusters anticipated to develop and spread eastward across much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon and evening. Areas along/north of the ongoing convection in southern AR may struggle to destabilize, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, the stronger mid-level flow/shear attendant to the shortwave trough may foster occasional damaging winds if stronger convection can be sustained. Locations south/east of the thunderstorms this morning will likely realize greater instability as diurnal heating occurs, but will remain mostly displaced from the stronger mid-level flow. This suggests convection will probably tend to be less organized with southward extent, especially into coastal/south TX. But, isolated severe/damaging winds may still occur as low-level lapse rates steepen though the day. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... A positively tilted mid-level trough/low extending from the Great Lakes to southern Plains will translate slowly eastward today while gradually amplifying. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south-southeastward across the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley through the period, with a weak low forecast to gradually develop towards the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by late tonight. Ongoing convection across north-central TX and the southern AR vicinity has remained mostly sub-severe early this morning, with the TX thunderstorms post-frontal and likely somewhat elevated. The activity across southern AR is being aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet, and ascent preceding a mid-level shortwave trough with attendant 40-50 kt westerly jet over OK. Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur along/south of the front through this afternoon, with filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain generally poor, which may tend to limit updraft strength to some extent. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear associated with the shortwave trough should aid in updraft organization, with multicell clusters anticipated to develop and spread eastward across much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon and evening. Areas along/north of the ongoing convection in southern AR may struggle to destabilize, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, the stronger mid-level flow/shear attendant to the shortwave trough may foster occasional damaging winds if stronger convection can be sustained. Locations south/east of the thunderstorms this morning will likely realize greater instability as diurnal heating occurs, but will remain mostly displaced from the stronger mid-level flow. This suggests convection will probably tend to be less organized with southward extent, especially into coastal/south TX. But, isolated severe/damaging winds may still occur as low-level lapse rates steepen though the day. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... A positively tilted mid-level trough/low extending from the Great Lakes to southern Plains will translate slowly eastward today while gradually amplifying. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south-southeastward across the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley through the period, with a weak low forecast to gradually develop towards the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by late tonight. Ongoing convection across north-central TX and the southern AR vicinity has remained mostly sub-severe early this morning, with the TX thunderstorms post-frontal and likely somewhat elevated. The activity across southern AR is being aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet, and ascent preceding a mid-level shortwave trough with attendant 40-50 kt westerly jet over OK. Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur along/south of the front through this afternoon, with filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain generally poor, which may tend to limit updraft strength to some extent. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear associated with the shortwave trough should aid in updraft organization, with multicell clusters anticipated to develop and spread eastward across much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon and evening. Areas along/north of the ongoing convection in southern AR may struggle to destabilize, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, the stronger mid-level flow/shear attendant to the shortwave trough may foster occasional damaging winds if stronger convection can be sustained. Locations south/east of the thunderstorms this morning will likely realize greater instability as diurnal heating occurs, but will remain mostly displaced from the stronger mid-level flow. This suggests convection will probably tend to be less organized with southward extent, especially into coastal/south TX. But, isolated severe/damaging winds may still occur as low-level lapse rates steepen though the day. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Narda, located in the eastern Pacific several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 08:46:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 09:26:45 GMT

MD 2127 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX CONCHO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Areas affected...TX Concho Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240855Z - 241000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A short-duration severe wind/hail threat remains possible during the pre-dawn hours across the Concho Valley. DISCUSSION...Merging cells fostered upscale growth into an elevated QLCS, with the southern portion showing a recent uptick in intensity. West-TX Mesonet gusts had been sub-severe (up to 50 mph) but not optimally located until it reached Sterling City where a 78 mph gust was recorded. This recent uptick may be related to the merging of eastward-moving convective outflow with a prior west-southwestward gravity wave evident in IR imagery after the collapse of central TX convection earlier this morning. MPAS-NSSL/GSL CAMs appear to have handled the intensification scenario well, but both suggest it will be short-lived. Convection should remain divorced from larger buoyancy across south/east TX and southwesterly winds at 1-km AGL are expected to become veered through sunrise with weakening low-level ascent. ..Grams/Gleason.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT... LAT...LON 32200049 32339993 32179937 31559905 31239916 31039941 31019961 31010037 31140116 31320122 31540110 32200049 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 08:46:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 08:46:42 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 793 WTPZ44 KNHC 240841 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 The low-level center of Narda has been mostly obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud-top temperatures of -70 to -85C, following a brief eye feature that developed near the time of the previous advisory package. Since then, the cyclone has begun to feel the effects of increasing vertical wind shear. UW-CIMSS now analyzes 22 kt of east-northeasterly shear, and satellite imagery shows increasing outflow restriction in the eastern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 84 to 101 kt. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 90 kt. Narda is estimated to be moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 11 kt. A general westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the northwest is expected by day 3 as a mid-level low over southern California erodes the eastern portion of the subtropical ridge. A more northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast by days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves into the weakness in the ridge created by the mid-level low. The official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory for the next couple of days, then was shifted slightly to the left beyond 48 hours to better align with trends in the consensus guidance. Narda will remain embedded within a moist air mass and over very warm waters during the next couple of days. Despite these favorable conditions for intensification, east-northeasterly shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt later today and tonight, which is expected to disrupt the cyclone enough to cause some weakening. Narda should emerge from the hostile shear environment on Thursday while still over warm waters and surrounded by moist mid-level air. This should allow for a period of re-intensification, with Narda forecast to peak at major hurricane strength around day 3. Sea surface temperatures will decrease rather abruptly beyond day 3, with Narda crossing the 26C isotherm prior to day 4 while also moving into a progressively drier and more stable environment. As a result, rapid weakening is forecast by days 4 and 5, with Narda expected to lose deep convection and become a post-tropical low by day 5. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and most closely aligned with a blend of the HCCA and FSSE intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.1N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 15.9N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.6N 123.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.4N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 21.8N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 240840 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0900 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 64 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 2 86(88) 8(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 115W 50 X 46(46) 28(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 115W 64 X 15(15) 26(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 54(62) 10(72) 1(73) X(73) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 2(22) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 42(64) 6(70) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 4(33) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 240840 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025 ...NARDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WHILE REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 110.5W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 110.5 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today and tonight, followed by some slight strengthening late Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...NARDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WHILE REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Sep 24 the center of Narda was located near 15.1, -110.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 713 WTPZ24 KNHC 240839 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0900 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 105SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.9N 119.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 124.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.8N 123.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next week with dry conditions anticipated. The only exception may be across the Southeast where tropical moisture may move inland early next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances. Western CONUS mid-level troughing for much of the period will support lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains. Northerly flow across the Gulf of America should limit rich moisture inland early next week. Therefore, some residual moisture may result in weak instability across the central and northern High Plains, but thunderstorm potential will likely be limited with even lower severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next week with dry conditions anticipated. The only exception may be across the Southeast where tropical moisture may move inland early next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances. Western CONUS mid-level troughing for much of the period will support lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains. Northerly flow across the Gulf of America should limit rich moisture inland early next week. Therefore, some residual moisture may result in weak instability across the central and northern High Plains, but thunderstorm potential will likely be limited with even lower severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next week with dry conditions anticipated. The only exception may be across the Southeast where tropical moisture may move inland early next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances. Western CONUS mid-level troughing for much of the period will support lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains. Northerly flow across the Gulf of America should limit rich moisture inland early next week. Therefore, some residual moisture may result in weak instability across the central and northern High Plains, but thunderstorm potential will likely be limited with even lower severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next week with dry conditions anticipated. The only exception may be across the Southeast where tropical moisture may move inland early next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances. Western CONUS mid-level troughing for much of the period will support lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains. Northerly flow across the Gulf of America should limit rich moisture inland early next week. Therefore, some residual moisture may result in weak instability across the central and northern High Plains, but thunderstorm potential will likely be limited with even lower severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next week with dry conditions anticipated. The only exception may be across the Southeast where tropical moisture may move inland early next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances. Western CONUS mid-level troughing for much of the period will support lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains. Northerly flow across the Gulf of America should limit rich moisture inland early next week. Therefore, some residual moisture may result in weak instability across the central and northern High Plains, but thunderstorm potential will likely be limited with even lower severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next week with dry conditions anticipated. The only exception may be across the Southeast where tropical moisture may move inland early next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances. Western CONUS mid-level troughing for much of the period will support lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains. Northerly flow across the Gulf of America should limit rich moisture inland early next week. Therefore, some residual moisture may result in weak instability across the central and northern High Plains, but thunderstorm potential will likely be limited with even lower severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next week with dry conditions anticipated. The only exception may be across the Southeast where tropical moisture may move inland early next week with some rain and thunderstorm chances. Western CONUS mid-level troughing for much of the period will support lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains. Northerly flow across the Gulf of America should limit rich moisture inland early next week. Therefore, some residual moisture may result in weak instability across the central and northern High Plains, but thunderstorm potential will likely be limited with even lower severe weather potential. Read more