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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Elevated area in northern WA (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus). See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level jet moves onshore over Washington on Thursday, west-southwesterly winds aloft will result in dry and gusty downslope winds over eastern portions of the North Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... West-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 MPH (locally gusting as high as 30-35 MPH) are forecast through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity should dip to 10-15%. With forecast fuels guidance showing ERCs approaching or at the 90th annual percentile, Critical highlights have been introduced -- especially given the presence of ongoing fires in the region. Maximum winds are expected to peak beginning around 2 PM PDT Thursday, and diminish by 8 PM PDT. ...Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin... An upper-low is expected to bring thunderstorm activity to the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin, and Arizona regions. Higher precipitable water content and marginal fuel receptiveness will diminish fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Elevated area in northern WA (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus). See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level jet moves onshore over Washington on Thursday, west-southwesterly winds aloft will result in dry and gusty downslope winds over eastern portions of the North Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... West-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 MPH (locally gusting as high as 30-35 MPH) are forecast through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity should dip to 10-15%. With forecast fuels guidance showing ERCs approaching or at the 90th annual percentile, Critical highlights have been introduced -- especially given the presence of ongoing fires in the region. Maximum winds are expected to peak beginning around 2 PM PDT Thursday, and diminish by 8 PM PDT. ...Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin... An upper-low is expected to bring thunderstorm activity to the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin, and Arizona regions. Higher precipitable water content and marginal fuel receptiveness will diminish fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Elevated area in northern WA (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus). See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level jet moves onshore over Washington on Thursday, west-southwesterly winds aloft will result in dry and gusty downslope winds over eastern portions of the North Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... West-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 MPH (locally gusting as high as 30-35 MPH) are forecast through the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity should dip to 10-15%. With forecast fuels guidance showing ERCs approaching or at the 90th annual percentile, Critical highlights have been introduced -- especially given the presence of ongoing fires in the region. Maximum winds are expected to peak beginning around 2 PM PDT Thursday, and diminish by 8 PM PDT. ...Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin... An upper-low is expected to bring thunderstorm activity to the Sierra Nevada, southern Great Basin, and Arizona regions. Higher precipitable water content and marginal fuel receptiveness will diminish fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the coast from Georgia to North Carolina. ...Synopsis... A broad upper tough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken before becoming cut off over portions of the Southeast Friday. To the west, an upper low will move slowly eastward settling over the Southwestern States into the weekend. A cold front will move offshore across the Mid Atlantic Coast and into parts of the Southeast Friday and Friday night. ...Southeast... As the cold front over the Southeast moves slowly eastward, a weak wave low should develop along it across portions of northern AL and western GA. Locally stronger convergence along the front and ahead of the weak low is expected to support scattered storms at the start of the period. Slow intensification of this activity is possible with scattered heating of the moist air mass. Moderate buoyancy, but modest vertical shear suggests a few multicellular clusters are possible as storm coverage gradually increases through the day. This would support some stronger downdrafts and sporadic damaging gust potential given high precipitable water content. The highest storm coverage is expected along the advancing front and near the coast across GA and SC where a few downbursts are possible. However, the limited vertical shear and very poor mid-level lapse rates lend low confidence in 5% coverage. ...Southwest... Beneath the weakening upper low, weak southerly flow will transport residual monsoon moisture northward over the southern Great basin and Four Corners. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Modest mid and low-level lapse rates will support some destabilization beneath the upper-level cold core despite clouds and ongoing showers/storms. While not overly strong, 30-35 kt mid-level flow could support a few stronger thunderstorms with severe wind potential owing to relatively high cloud bases. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the coast from Georgia to North Carolina. ...Synopsis... A broad upper tough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken before becoming cut off over portions of the Southeast Friday. To the west, an upper low will move slowly eastward settling over the Southwestern States into the weekend. A cold front will move offshore across the Mid Atlantic Coast and into parts of the Southeast Friday and Friday night. ...Southeast... As the cold front over the Southeast moves slowly eastward, a weak wave low should develop along it across portions of northern AL and western GA. Locally stronger convergence along the front and ahead of the weak low is expected to support scattered storms at the start of the period. Slow intensification of this activity is possible with scattered heating of the moist air mass. Moderate buoyancy, but modest vertical shear suggests a few multicellular clusters are possible as storm coverage gradually increases through the day. This would support some stronger downdrafts and sporadic damaging gust potential given high precipitable water content. The highest storm coverage is expected along the advancing front and near the coast across GA and SC where a few downbursts are possible. However, the limited vertical shear and very poor mid-level lapse rates lend low confidence in 5% coverage. ...Southwest... Beneath the weakening upper low, weak southerly flow will transport residual monsoon moisture northward over the southern Great basin and Four Corners. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Modest mid and low-level lapse rates will support some destabilization beneath the upper-level cold core despite clouds and ongoing showers/storms. While not overly strong, 30-35 kt mid-level flow could support a few stronger thunderstorms with severe wind potential owing to relatively high cloud bases. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the coast from Georgia to North Carolina. ...Synopsis... A broad upper tough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken before becoming cut off over portions of the Southeast Friday. To the west, an upper low will move slowly eastward settling over the Southwestern States into the weekend. A cold front will move offshore across the Mid Atlantic Coast and into parts of the Southeast Friday and Friday night. ...Southeast... As the cold front over the Southeast moves slowly eastward, a weak wave low should develop along it across portions of northern AL and western GA. Locally stronger convergence along the front and ahead of the weak low is expected to support scattered storms at the start of the period. Slow intensification of this activity is possible with scattered heating of the moist air mass. Moderate buoyancy, but modest vertical shear suggests a few multicellular clusters are possible as storm coverage gradually increases through the day. This would support some stronger downdrafts and sporadic damaging gust potential given high precipitable water content. The highest storm coverage is expected along the advancing front and near the coast across GA and SC where a few downbursts are possible. However, the limited vertical shear and very poor mid-level lapse rates lend low confidence in 5% coverage. ...Southwest... Beneath the weakening upper low, weak southerly flow will transport residual monsoon moisture northward over the southern Great basin and Four Corners. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Modest mid and low-level lapse rates will support some destabilization beneath the upper-level cold core despite clouds and ongoing showers/storms. While not overly strong, 30-35 kt mid-level flow could support a few stronger thunderstorms with severe wind potential owing to relatively high cloud bases. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the coast from Georgia to North Carolina. ...Synopsis... A broad upper tough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken before becoming cut off over portions of the Southeast Friday. To the west, an upper low will move slowly eastward settling over the Southwestern States into the weekend. A cold front will move offshore across the Mid Atlantic Coast and into parts of the Southeast Friday and Friday night. ...Southeast... As the cold front over the Southeast moves slowly eastward, a weak wave low should develop along it across portions of northern AL and western GA. Locally stronger convergence along the front and ahead of the weak low is expected to support scattered storms at the start of the period. Slow intensification of this activity is possible with scattered heating of the moist air mass. Moderate buoyancy, but modest vertical shear suggests a few multicellular clusters are possible as storm coverage gradually increases through the day. This would support some stronger downdrafts and sporadic damaging gust potential given high precipitable water content. The highest storm coverage is expected along the advancing front and near the coast across GA and SC where a few downbursts are possible. However, the limited vertical shear and very poor mid-level lapse rates lend low confidence in 5% coverage. ...Southwest... Beneath the weakening upper low, weak southerly flow will transport residual monsoon moisture northward over the southern Great basin and Four Corners. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Modest mid and low-level lapse rates will support some destabilization beneath the upper-level cold core despite clouds and ongoing showers/storms. While not overly strong, 30-35 kt mid-level flow could support a few stronger thunderstorms with severe wind potential owing to relatively high cloud bases. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the coast from Georgia to North Carolina. ...Synopsis... A broad upper tough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken before becoming cut off over portions of the Southeast Friday. To the west, an upper low will move slowly eastward settling over the Southwestern States into the weekend. A cold front will move offshore across the Mid Atlantic Coast and into parts of the Southeast Friday and Friday night. ...Southeast... As the cold front over the Southeast moves slowly eastward, a weak wave low should develop along it across portions of northern AL and western GA. Locally stronger convergence along the front and ahead of the weak low is expected to support scattered storms at the start of the period. Slow intensification of this activity is possible with scattered heating of the moist air mass. Moderate buoyancy, but modest vertical shear suggests a few multicellular clusters are possible as storm coverage gradually increases through the day. This would support some stronger downdrafts and sporadic damaging gust potential given high precipitable water content. The highest storm coverage is expected along the advancing front and near the coast across GA and SC where a few downbursts are possible. However, the limited vertical shear and very poor mid-level lapse rates lend low confidence in 5% coverage. ...Southwest... Beneath the weakening upper low, weak southerly flow will transport residual monsoon moisture northward over the southern Great basin and Four Corners. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Modest mid and low-level lapse rates will support some destabilization beneath the upper-level cold core despite clouds and ongoing showers/storms. While not overly strong, 30-35 kt mid-level flow could support a few stronger thunderstorms with severe wind potential owing to relatively high cloud bases. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the coast from Georgia to North Carolina. ...Synopsis... A broad upper tough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken before becoming cut off over portions of the Southeast Friday. To the west, an upper low will move slowly eastward settling over the Southwestern States into the weekend. A cold front will move offshore across the Mid Atlantic Coast and into parts of the Southeast Friday and Friday night. ...Southeast... As the cold front over the Southeast moves slowly eastward, a weak wave low should develop along it across portions of northern AL and western GA. Locally stronger convergence along the front and ahead of the weak low is expected to support scattered storms at the start of the period. Slow intensification of this activity is possible with scattered heating of the moist air mass. Moderate buoyancy, but modest vertical shear suggests a few multicellular clusters are possible as storm coverage gradually increases through the day. This would support some stronger downdrafts and sporadic damaging gust potential given high precipitable water content. The highest storm coverage is expected along the advancing front and near the coast across GA and SC where a few downbursts are possible. However, the limited vertical shear and very poor mid-level lapse rates lend low confidence in 5% coverage. ...Southwest... Beneath the weakening upper low, weak southerly flow will transport residual monsoon moisture northward over the southern Great basin and Four Corners. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Modest mid and low-level lapse rates will support some destabilization beneath the upper-level cold core despite clouds and ongoing showers/storms. While not overly strong, 30-35 kt mid-level flow could support a few stronger thunderstorms with severe wind potential owing to relatively high cloud bases. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

The town of Berlin asked the public to conserve water, and restaurants should only serve water when patrons request it. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Sep 19, 2025

A café owner in Barre was doing her best to curb water use by running less water and washing fewer loads of laundry when she can. Bottled water is offered to patrons and pets. A deli on Main Street uses local produce, but drought limited crop production and has affected what items were on the menu. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Sep 19, 2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians. Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low to across southern New England, though there remains some uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation. Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears unlikely. ...Southern Appalachians and Southeast... Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with water-loaded downdrafts. Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening. ...Southwest... An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ. Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization potential suggests the threat will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians. Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low to across southern New England, though there remains some uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation. Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears unlikely. ...Southern Appalachians and Southeast... Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with water-loaded downdrafts. Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening. ...Southwest... An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ. Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization potential suggests the threat will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians. Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low to across southern New England, though there remains some uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation. Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears unlikely. ...Southern Appalachians and Southeast... Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with water-loaded downdrafts. Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening. ...Southwest... An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ. Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization potential suggests the threat will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians. Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low to across southern New England, though there remains some uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation. Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears unlikely. ...Southern Appalachians and Southeast... Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with water-loaded downdrafts. Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening. ...Southwest... An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ. Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization potential suggests the threat will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians. Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low to across southern New England, though there remains some uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation. Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears unlikely. ...Southern Appalachians and Southeast... Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with water-loaded downdrafts. Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening. ...Southwest... An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ. Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization potential suggests the threat will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians. Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low to across southern New England, though there remains some uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation. Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears unlikely. ...Southern Appalachians and Southeast... Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with water-loaded downdrafts. Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening. ...Southwest... An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ. Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization potential suggests the threat will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 09/24/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Narda, located in the eastern Pacific several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Wells near Mill Creek in Randolph County were starting to run dry. West Milford’s wells were dry, so there was no water for livestock or domestic uses. The Randolph County Office of Emergency Management stationed a water buffalo in the Adolph area. WBOY-TV Clarksburg (W.V.), Sep 19, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today as an upper-level trough progresses eastward over central California, bringing with it a surge of moisture and precipitation. Portions of the Central Valley and into the Bay Area are expected to get showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, though higher precipitable water content will diminish any lightning ignition concerns. Some stronger on-shore winds of 10-15 MPH are expected over the Bay Area into the Central Valley, but increasing moisture and poor overlap between the higher winds, lower relative humidity, and receptive fuels will keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more