Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today as an upper-level trough progresses eastward over central California, bringing with it a surge of moisture and precipitation. Portions of the Central Valley and into the Bay Area are expected to get showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, though higher precipitable water content will diminish any lightning ignition concerns. Some stronger on-shore winds of 10-15 MPH are expected over the Bay Area into the Central Valley, but increasing moisture and poor overlap between the higher winds, lower relative humidity, and receptive fuels will keep fire-weather concerns low. ..Halbert.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low today as an upper-level trough progresses eastward over central California, bringing with it a surge of moisture and precipitation. Portions of the Central Valley and into the Bay Area are expected to get showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, though higher precipitable water content will diminish any lightning ignition concerns. Some stronger on-shore winds of 10-15 MPH are expected over the Bay Area into the Central Valley, but increasing moisture and poor overlap between the higher winds, lower relative humidity, and receptive fuels will keep fire-weather concerns low. ..Halbert.. 09/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ...Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ...Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ...Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ...Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ...Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ...Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ...Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ...Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ...Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ...Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ...Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ...Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ...Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ...Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. ...TN Valley to South TX... Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley, southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream side of the upper trough. Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization, modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging winds with the most robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. ...TN Valley to South TX... Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley, southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream side of the upper trough. Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization, modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging winds with the most robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. ...TN Valley to South TX... Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley, southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream side of the upper trough. Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization, modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging winds with the most robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. ...TN Valley to South TX... Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley, southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream side of the upper trough. Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization, modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging winds with the most robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. ...TN Valley to South TX... Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley, southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream side of the upper trough. Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization, modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging winds with the most robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. ...TN Valley to South TX... Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley, southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream side of the upper trough. Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization, modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging winds with the most robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. ...TN Valley to South TX... Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley, southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream side of the upper trough. Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization, modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging winds with the most robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025 Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE LIT TO 30 NNE TXK. WW 620 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240600Z. ..GRAMS..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC051-059-097-109-119-125-240600- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARLAND HOT SPRING MONTGOMERY PIKE PULASKI SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 620 SEVERE TSTM AR 240130Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 620 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-central Arkansas * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 830 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to progress southeastward this evening across parts of Arkansas, with damaging wind, hail and possibly some tornado risk continuing, but likely on a more marginal/isolated basis by the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Hot Springs AR to 20 miles south southeast of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 618...WW 619... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

260
ABPZ20 KNHC 240501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Narda, located in the eastern Pacific several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

The water ban for Moriah has also been extended as the community has used about 20% less water in the week that the ban has been in place. To conserve water, the town’s car washes had all closed, and other small businesses were no longer using their sprinkler systems. The level of Bartlett Pond was stabilized after some beaver dams upstream were removed. The town supervisor hoped that water could be pumped from an old mine shaft to provide water for the town if they receive approval from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Sep 23, 2025 Moriah was under a local State of Emergency effective immediately due to a critical situation affecting the town’s reservoir. A mandatory water ban on all indoor and outdoor water use was in place. Residents were permitted to use water for drinking, cooking and personal hygiene, while allowed commercial water uses included that for public health and safety. The entire North Country was under an ongoing drought watch as Lake Champlain dipped into near-record lows. Several area towns urged minimal water use in the coming days with no rain anticipated. The Sun (Elizabethtown, N.Y.), Sep 16, 2025