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Gov. Kathy Hochul and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation expanded a drought watch to include 30 additional counties, totaling 50 counties under watch statewide. The 30 counties added were Albany, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Columbia, Cayuga, Chemung, Delaware, Dutchess, Fulton, Greene, lower Herkimer, Livingston, Montgomery, Oneida, Onondaga, Ontario, Orange, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Sullivan, Tompkins, Ulster, Washington, Wyoming and Yates. Residents, particularly those dependent on private groundwater wells, were encouraged to voluntarily conserve water. WKTV (Utica, N.Y.), Sep 10, 2025

The burn ban for Essex County was extended through Oct. 18 as drought persisted. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Sep 23, 2025 Officials in Essex County, New York issued a local state of emergency due to persistent dry conditions and a spate of grass fires in the area. The state of emergency took effect on Tuesday, August 12 and will continue through Thursday, September 11. During the state of emergency, a burn ban was in effect countywide to prevent fires from starting. The burn ban supersedes all burning permits and will last until Aug. 17 at noon. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Aug 13, 2025

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GUYER..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-039-051-053-059-097-109-119-125-240540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING MONTGOMERY PIKE PULASKI SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 02:55:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 03:27:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 02:38:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 03:22:01 GMT

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-039-051-053-059-097-109-119-125-240440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING MONTGOMERY PIKE PULASKI SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 02:55:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2025 02:55:07 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 997 FOPZ14 KNHC 240252 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 110W 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 115W 34 1 28(29) 63(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 115W 50 X 3( 3) 59(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 33(64) 3(67) X(67) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) X(22) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 10(25) 6(31) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 11(54) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 463 WTPZ44 KNHC 240252 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 Narda appears to have strengthened since the previous advisory, with an eye, albeit cloud-filled and cold, periodically evident in visible and infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to experience easterly vertical wind shear, with outflow restricted in the eastern semicircle. This is evident in satellite imagery and confirmed by the latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis, which indicates 19 kt of easterly shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 4.5/77 kt and 5.0/90 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 80 to 93 kt. Taking a blend of these data, and accounting for the improved satellite presentation, supports raising the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. Narda is estimated to be moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 11 kt. A general westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the northwest is expected around day 3 as a mid-level low over southern California erodes the eastern portion of the subtropical ridge. A more northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast by days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves into the weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the mid-level low to its north. The official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the middle of the track guidance envelope. Narda will remain embedded within a moist air mass and over very warm waters during the next couple of days. Shear will hold at moderate levels tonight, which may allow for some slight strengthening, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast. The easterly shear is then forecast to increase to near 30 kt on Wednesday, and this is expected to disrupt the cyclone enough to cause some weakening. Narda should move out of the moderate to strong easterly shear while remaining over warm waters and surrounded by moist mid-level air on Thursday. This environment should allow for a period of re-intensification, with Narda forecast to peak at major hurricane strength around day 3. Sea surface temperatures will gradually decrease late in the forecast period, with Narda crossing the 26C isotherm around day 4. The cyclone will also be moving into a much drier mid-level airmass and a more stable environment, which should result in steady weakening by day 4 and rapid weakening by day 5. The official intensity forecast is most closely aligned with the HCCA intensity aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 17.1N 121.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 19.0N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 378 WTPZ34 KNHC 240251 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 ...NARDA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 109.4W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 109.4 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by some weakening on Wednesday. Little change in strength is then forecast Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...NARDA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Sep 23 the center of Narda was located near 15.3, -109.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 465 WTPZ24 KNHC 240251 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 113.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 121.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 123.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ADM TO 10 ESE ADM TO 20 NNE DUA TO 30 SE MLC. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 619 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-023-085-089-095-127-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-240300- TX Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ADM TO 10 ESE ADM TO 20 NNE DUA TO 30 SE MLC. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 619 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-023-085-089-095-127-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-240300- TX Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ADM TO 10 ESE ADM TO 20 NNE DUA TO 30 SE MLC. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 619 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-023-085-089-095-127-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-240300- TX Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ADM TO 10 ESE ADM TO 20 NNE DUA TO 30 SE MLC. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 619 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. ..KERR..09/24/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-113-133-240300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER POLK SEVIER OKC005-013-023-085-089-095-127-240300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA TXC037-097-147-181-277-337-387-240300- TX Read more

WW 619 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 232025Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Central and Southern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Supercell thunderstorms producing scattered wind damage, isolated large to very large hail, and a tornado or two are possible with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Durant OK to 20 miles southeast of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 618... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Leitman Read more

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 385 WTNT42 KNHC 240234 TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 Gabrielle's eye became a little less distinct over the past several hours, but the system continues to produce very cold-topped deep convection to near -70 deg C. Convective banding features remain fairly well defined, although upper-level outflow is becoming a little restricted over the western portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity estimate is reduced just slightly to 110 kt, which is a blend of the latest CI and final Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane continues to pick up forward speed and the motion is now around 065/19 kt. The basic steering scenario remains about the same as in the previous advisories. Over the next few days, Gabrielle should move between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a large mid-latitude trough over the north Atlantic. This motion should take the system near or over the Azores in about 60 hours. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and close to the corrected consensus model guidance. Drier air, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooling ocean waters should cause the system to steadily weaken during the next several days. The only offsetting factor might be baroclinic interactions with the nearby trough which could help Gabrielle maintain some of its intensity while it moves near or through the Azores. The official intensity forecast is just slightly above the latest LGEM guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the islands of the Azores, and interests there should closely monitor Gabrielle's progress as hurricane conditions are possible later this week. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 35.1N 54.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 36.9N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 38.4N 31.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 40.1N 26.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 41.5N 20.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0000Z 41.5N 13.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/0000Z 39.5N 9.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 513 WTNT32 KNHC 240234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 ...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 54.3W ABOUT 1520 MI...2450 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 54.3 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with some additional acceleration is expected to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and move across the island chain Thursday night into Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the next couple of days, but Gabrielle is still expected to be a hurricane when it passes through the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3 to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the eastern Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 23 the center of Gabrielle was located near 35.1, -54.3 with movement ENE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.