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WW 0618 Status Updates
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WW 0618 Status Updates
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risk here, reference MCD #2123. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely organized storms capable of locally damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central California and Sacramento Valley... An upper-level low will slowly move into the central CA coast through Day 2, coincident with a stronger onshore push of deeper atmospheric moisture. Ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges Wednesday morning should reach the Napa Valley area by late Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly moist thermodynamic profiles will support wetter thunderstorm cores particularly along the central CA coast, limiting fire weather concerns. The inland surge of winds into the Bay Area and Central Valley may still bring brief elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Sacramento Valley Wednesday. South to southeast winds of 10-15 mph in advance of a moister, maritime air mass will support locally elevated fire weather conditions where dry fuels exist, but fire weather threat should be mitigated Wednesday evening/overnight as relative humidity rises, with generally good overnight recoveries in the Sacramento Valley. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more