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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes. Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt. At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place, supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period. ...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast... Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong to locally damaging gusts. To the north, while elevated instability will support general thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35 kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells will be possible. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 23 19:34:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ...OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ..Jewell.. 09/23/2025 Read more