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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 14:40:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 14:40:10 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 092 WTPZ44 KNHC 231438 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 Narda has strengthened significantly overnight. Satellite images show that deep convection has been expanding in all quadrants and the inner core is becoming better organized. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 68 to 77 kt, and based on that data and the improving cloud pattern, the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt. The hurricane is moving generally westward at 11 kt steered by a strong subtropical high to its north. This high is expected to shift westward and continue to keep Narda on a general westward track away from Mexico during the next 2 or 3 days. After that time, the models show a weakness developing in the ridge associated with a cut off low moving southward over southern California. This pattern change should cause Narda to slow down and turn northwestward late this week and over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is fairly similar to the previous one and closest to the HCCA aid. Narda is likely to continue to strengthen over the next day or so while it remains in generally conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions. By late tomorrow, the models show an increase in easterly shear and that should cause the intensity of Narda to level off later in the week. A weakening trend should begin this weekend when Narda is expected to track over cooler waters and into more stable conditions. The NHC track forecast is at the top end of the guidance in the short term, but falls close to the middle of the guidance envelope by the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.8N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.6N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.5N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 16.8N 120.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 18.4N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 194 FOPZ14 KNHC 231437 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 1500 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 15 77(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 110W 50 1 51(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 110W 64 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 44(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 4(50) X(50) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 13(28) 3(31) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 19(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 231437 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 1500 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 113.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 120.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 123.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231437 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 ...NARDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 107.3W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is expected through tonight, followed by little change in intensity Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...NARDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Sep 23 the center of Narda was located near 15.8, -107.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

As drought conditions worsen around our region, some municipalities have been asking residents to conserve water. For private well owners, wells were producing less water or even running dry. A well driller in Derby reported more than 20 telephone calls daily for the past month to a month and a half about dry springs. He also noted that for the past four or five years he has gotten calls from folks with dug wells where water production slowed toward the end of summer. WCAX-TV CBS 3 (Burlington, Vt.), Sep 12, 2025

Guides on the Colorado River, San Juan River and Virgin River were dealing with guests changing bookings, cancelling visits and adjusting itineraries due to low flows. One river outfitter extended its two longest trips by a day to compensate for the lower flows and allow guests to enjoy hiking opportunities. The Salt Lake Tribune (Utah), Sep 15, 2025

Dryland peanut yields have been diminished by the dry weather, and if September remains dry, the yields and quality will continue to deteriorate. Southeast Farm Press (Atlanta, Ga.), Sep 19, 2025

Soybeans in Walker County were very short when they ought to be about waist high. Without rain soon, there will not be a harvest in November. WVTM-TV 13 (Birmingham, Ala.), Sep 13, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

Pumpkins grown in west Michigan were smaller than usual. Growers were struggling to produce large pumpkins. The dry weather was also expected to lead to higher costs for vegetables in the region. WGHN (Grand Haven, Mich.), Sep 23, 2025

Hay growers in Pend Oreille County were struggling to turn a profit due to drought, climbing fuel costs, and flat hay prices. The Miner (Newport, Wash.), Sep 17, 2025

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located several hundred miles offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:55:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 09:26:31 GMT