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MD 1717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...much of northern...central...and eastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190654Z - 190830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A downstream severe thunderstorm watch is possible if a more organized storm cluster can develop. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Minnesota has started to show some strengthening over the past hour. The environment downstream of this activity is still mostly uncapped with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 35-40 knots of effective shear. Continued upscale growth along the synoptic boundary from southern Minnesota into northwest Iowa is expected. This may result in a more organized damaging wind threat persisting beyond 08Z and east of the current severe thunderstorm watch. This solution is supported by the HRRR/RRFS with more robust convection between 08Z and 12Z across northern/eastern Iowa. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and if a more organized/bowing lie segment develops, a downstream severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 41269208 41619327 42029483 42619590 43269609 43459590 43499450 43479300 43319166 42639084 42229055 41759071 41409111 41259185 41269208 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LBF TO 10 ESE ANW TO 30 SSE MHE TO 15 ENE OTG TO 30 SE MKT. ..BENTLEY..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-043-047-063-091-105-133-147-161-165-190840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN NOBLES ROCK STEELE WASECA WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-027-041-051-071-089-107-115-139-149-179-183- 190840- NE Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LBF TO 10 ESE ANW TO 30 SSE MHE TO 15 ENE OTG TO 30 SE MKT. ..BENTLEY..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-043-047-063-091-105-133-147-161-165-190840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN NOBLES ROCK STEELE WASECA WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-027-041-051-071-089-107-115-139-149-179-183- 190840- NE Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LBF TO 10 ESE ANW TO 30 SSE MHE TO 15 ENE OTG TO 30 SE MKT. ..BENTLEY..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-043-047-063-091-105-133-147-161-165-190840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN NOBLES ROCK STEELE WASECA WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-027-041-051-071-089-107-115-139-149-179-183- 190840- NE Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LBF TO 10 ESE ANW TO 30 SSE MHE TO 15 ENE OTG TO 30 SE MKT. ..BENTLEY..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-043-047-063-091-105-133-147-161-165-190840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN NOBLES ROCK STEELE WASECA WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-027-041-051-071-089-107-115-139-149-179-183- 190840- NE Read more

WW 524 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 190110Z - 190800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Central and Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 810 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered intense thunderstorms including supercells will develop and track across the watch area into the overnight period. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concerns. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of North Platte NE to 45 miles north northeast of Fairmont MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate at least some shearing of mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast during this period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. The interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit further northeastward through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. In lower levels, a cold front is forecast to progress southward along the Atlantic Seaboard, to the lee of the southern Appalachians, while its western flank retreats northeastward and eastward across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Dakotas into Minnesota... Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become characterized by moderate to large potential instability with daytime heating across the mid Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest. Forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, but guidance is suggestive that one or two subtle perturbations progressing around the northern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging may support the initiation of storms near the North and South Dakota state border vicinity by late Monday afternoon. Although deep-layer shear may be modest, this evolution may include a supercell or two before activity tends to grow upscale into an east/southeastward propagating cluster capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard... With the cold front generally advancing south of the westerlies, the extent of severe weather potential remains unclear. Convection allowing models and other guidance suggest that it might not be out of the question that a remnant cluster of storms, emerging from the lower Ohio Valley early Monday, may persist or re-intensify during the day, while propagating southeastward along the front toward the southern Appalachians, aided by inflow of moderately unstable air. Otherwise, destabilization in advance of the progressive portion of the front, across the Carolinas, may contribute to strong storms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MHE TO 10 N FSD TO 10 N OTG TO 35 NW FRM TO 15 NE MKT. ..BENTLEY..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-033-043-047-063-091-105-133-147-161-165-190740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN NOBLES ROCK STEELE WASECA WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-017-027-041-051-071-089-101-103-107-111-113-115- 117-135-139-149-171-179-183-190740- NE Read more

MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...North-central/northeast NE...southeast SD...southern MN...northwest/north-central IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524... Valid 190430Z - 190600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat may continue into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of storms are ongoing in and near WW 524 late this evening. A small southward-moving supercell cluster across north-central NE has weakened somewhat compared to earlier this evening, but still resides within a favorable environment for organized convection, with MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear in place. Increasing MLCINH is decreasing the window of opportunity for surface-based storms, but there remains some potential for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado for as long as these supercell structures persist. The easternmost cell in this cluster has shown some tendency for southeastward propagation, which could eventually spread some severe threat into parts of eastern NE. Buoyancy is somewhat weaker into southwest MN, but otherwise the environment is similarly favorable for organized convection. A localized threat for all severe hazards will remain possible in the short term. A modest nocturnal low-level jet may support some upscale growth in this area with time, which would tend to move southeastward across IA overnight, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind and isolated hail. Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible if short-term trends support organized upscale growth. Between these two ongoing clusters, some increase in storm coverage remains possible within the conditionally favorable environment across southeast SD late tonight, in conjunction with the nocturnal low-level jet. At least an isolated severe threat could accompany any robust development in this area into the early overnight hours. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41630142 42320147 43439905 43999783 44659591 44469390 44079262 43279332 41779583 41249843 41320139 41630142 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISALAND...CONNECTICUT...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...LONG ISLAND...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the westerlies will remain modestly amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period. While one notable short wave perturbation may accelerate northeastward out of the Pacific Northwest into the eastern Canadian provinces, another is forecast to dig inland across the Pacific Northwest, maintaining larger-scale troughing there. Downstream, broadly anticyclonic flow is forecast across the northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest, around the northern periphery of fairly prominent mid/upper ridging centered over the northern Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity. Farther east, it appears that a significant mid-level trough emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity will continue to dig across the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward across the northern Atlantic Seaboard. The eastern trough will be accompanied by a reinforcing intrusion of cooler, drier air southeast of the Great Lakes region and across the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard by Sunday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to generally stall across the lower Ohio into middle Missouri Valleys and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, beneath the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. ...New England into northern Mid Atlantic... Based on latest model output, confidence is increasing in the likelihood of appreciable (CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg) pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the southward advancing front, as far north as the southern tier of New York through portions of northern Vermont/New Hampshire into central Maine by around 18-19Z Sunday afternoon. Forcing for ascent along/ahead of the front, aided by the approaching upstream mid-level trough, is expected to support the initiation of strong thunderstorm development, in the presence of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30 kt. Forecast soundings indicate moistening thermodynamic profiles, including surface dew points in the mid 60s to near 70F, but with sufficient sub-saturation to allow for evaporative cooling, in addition to heavy precipitation loading, to enhance downdrafts and downward momentum transfer. Initial activity probably will be accompanied by potentially damaging downbursts, and perhaps some hail, before perhaps consolidating into a line with a continuing risk for strong to severe gusts while spreading southeastward into and across coastal areas. ...Lower Missouri into Lower Ohio Valleys... East of the warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air across the Great Plains, convection allowing guidance suggests that one or two east-southeastward propagating clusters of storms could evolve along the frontal zone across the region Sunday into Sunday night. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support moderate to large potential instability along and south of the front, near the southern periphery of west-northwesterly mid-level flow supportive of modest shear. However, with no low-level jet to focus convective development, except perhaps across parts of northwestern Missouri late Sunday evening, and mid/upper support still unclear, confidence in depicting areas of higher severe probabilities, which may eventually be needed, remains low at this time. ...Northern/Central Great Plains... Thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates and sizable CAPE are likely to persist across much of the region through this period, in the presence of modest to weak deep-layer shear. However, mid/upper support for convective development remains unclear, and warming mid-level temperatures downstream of the Pacific Northwest trough may strengthen inhibition, contributing to more sparse thunderstorm coverage than prior days. ..Kerr.. 07/19/2025 Read more