Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Narda, located several hundred miles offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to Day 1 outlook. See previous forecast below. ...Central California Coast... An upper-level low slowly progressing towards CA will continue to usher in mid and upper-level moisture into the southern and central CA coasts today and especially tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move into the central CA coast and adjacent coastal ranges overnight into the Day 2/Wednesday period. Initial thunderstorm development on the northern fringe of the advancing moisture plume may be accompanied by limited rainfall with a very dry, sub-cloud layer in place. However, steadily rising relative humidity as stronger onshore flow commences and increasing precipitable water values (1.0-1.3") should allow for more wetting thunderstorm cores, limiting dry lightning impacts across the central CA coast overnight. ..Williams.. 09/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary. This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River. Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to become better defined over north-central OK and this low will develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s deg F, respectively. Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This environmental setup will support robust supercell development, especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025 Read more

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