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Dryland peanut yields have been diminished by the dry weather, and if September remains dry, the yields and quality will continue to deteriorate. Southeast Farm Press (Atlanta, Ga.), Sep 19, 2025

Soybeans in Walker County were very short when they ought to be about waist high. Without rain soon, there will not be a harvest in November. WVTM-TV 13 (Birmingham, Ala.), Sep 13, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South... Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low (around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains. Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today, but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible. It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong, gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR, where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this update. But, trends will continue to be monitored. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS, scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025 Read more

Pumpkins grown in west Michigan were smaller than usual. Growers were struggling to produce large pumpkins. The dry weather was also expected to lead to higher costs for vegetables in the region. WGHN (Grand Haven, Mich.), Sep 23, 2025

Hay growers in Pend Oreille County were struggling to turn a profit due to drought, climbing fuel costs, and flat hay prices. The Miner (Newport, Wash.), Sep 17, 2025

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located several hundred miles offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:55:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 09:26:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:53:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 09:21:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:55:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:55:28 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230850 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 Narda continues to strengthen well off the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening, with satellite imagery showing a central dense overcast and very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, over the low-level center. A 0248 UTC GPM microwave pass and a 0350 UTC Metop-C ASCAT pass were helpful in estimating the center location, determining the motion, and assessing the structure of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 4.0/65 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 54 to 60 kt. A blend of these data, along with the improved satellite presentation, supports raising the initial intensity to 60 kt for this advisory. Narda is now estimated to be moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 11 kt. A general westward motion is expected to continue during the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected by days 4 and 5 as a mid-level low over southern California erodes the eastern portion of the subtropical ridge. The official forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous forecast during the next couple of days to account for the south-of-due-west motion, and then slightly to the right of the prior forecast by days 4 and 5 due to an eastward shift in the guidance. The track forecast follows a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus aids, as well as the Google DeepMind/NOAA Eagle AI guidance. Narda will remain embedded within a moist air mass, over very warm waters, and in an environment of light to moderate easterly shear during the next day or so. These factors should support steady strengthening. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates about a 30 to 40 percent probability of a 25-kt increase within 24 hours, and the intensity forecast reflects this, with Narda expected to become a hurricane soon. Little change in strength is forecast between 36 and 60 hours as easterly shear increases to around 20–25 kt, which may disrupt the cyclone enough to prevent further intensification despite otherwise favorable conditions. Beyond 60 hours, shear is expected to decrease, which may allow Narda to approach major hurricane status before moving over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment by day 5. The official intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope and is most closely aligned with the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.7N 106.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.2N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 19.4N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230849 TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 Gabrielle remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. However, it appears to have reached peak intensity, as the eyewall convective tops have become more asymmetric during the past few hours and the eye has become less distinct. This is likely due to the onset of moderate southwesterly vertical shear as shown by the restricted outflow in the southwestern quadrant. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 115-125 kt range, so the initial intensity is held at 120 kt. The hurricane continues moving northeastward or 045/11 kt. Gabrielle should continue to move around the northwestern side of the mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 12-24 h and then accelerate east-northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. A slight turn to the northeast ahead of a higher-latitude trough is expected in 72-96 h, followed by a more eastward motion as Gabrielle merges with the trough. The guidance envelope has only minor changes since the last advisory. So, the new forecast, which lies near or just north of the consensus models, is close to the previous forecast through 60 h and a little south of it after that time. The new forecast is also a little faster than the previous forecast. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 h due to shear and gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. After that, increasing shear and even cooler water should cause a faster weakening. While the above-mentioned trough could provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle maintain some of its intensity, it is also likely to cause Gabrielle to start extratropical transition in about 60 h. This transition will likely be complete just after the cyclone passes the Azores. The new intensity forecast is nudged downward from the previous forecast and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind, rainfall, and wave impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 33.2N 59.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 35.2N 52.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 37.9N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 39.7N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 43.3N 19.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/0600Z 42.7N 13.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230849 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 88(89) 6(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 110W 50 X 55(55) 17(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 110W 64 X 32(32) 20(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 66(72) 16(88) 1(89) X(89) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 24(59) 1(60) X(60) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 13(56) 2(58) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 7(28) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 26(45) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 966 FONT12 KNHC 230848 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 70(70) X(70) X(70) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 958 WTPZ34 KNHC 230848 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 ...NARDA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 106.1W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 106.1 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast today and tonight, with Narda expected to become a hurricane soon. Little change in strength is then forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...NARDA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Sep 23 the center of Narda was located near 15.7, -106.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.