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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

506
ABNT20 KNHC 190527
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms around 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
are marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days, as it moves westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 ..DEAN..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 ..DEAN..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN Read more

MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524... Valid 190201Z - 190300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of greater tornado risk is evident in central Nebraska. This threat will persist for 1-2 more hours. DISCUSSION...A storm which has produced a few reported tornadoes over the last 30-45 minutes continues to move southward. The KLNX VAD has shown a steady increase in low-level SRH this evening as the low-level jet increases. Based on observed storm motion, SRH is higher than using standard Bunkers estimates. While a localized corridor of tornado risk is evident, this threat will likely only last another 1-2 hours before a gradual increase in MLCIN will mitigate this potential. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail and severe winds could occur with this supercell. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF... LAT...LON 41869942 41759976 41770019 42070026 42370028 42659992 42539950 41869942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-017-027-041-051-071-089-101-103-107-111-113-115- 117-135-139-149-171-179-183-190340- Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-017-027-041-051-071-089-101-103-107-111-113-115- 117-135-139-149-171-179-183-190340- Read more

MD 1714 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into south-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190019Z - 190215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Though storm coverage is uncertain, some increase in severe potential is anticipated in parts of north-central Nebraska over the next few hours. A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Signs of convective development are evident on visible satellite near a weak surface low in north-central Nebraska. Some high-based activity is also present farther southwest near North Platte. Strong buoyancy has developed in central Nebraska where temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Effective shear of 35-40 kts would support organized storms/supercells capable of mainly large hail and severe wind gusts. Temperatures aloft are warmer with southern extent which is contributing to slow development and uncertain storm coverage. However, a modest increase the low-level jet may help initiate additional storms by mid/late evening. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41710169 42870017 43349943 43239804 42779784 42019903 41789973 41490057 41500173 41710169 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0524 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

The Blaine County commissioners in a July 3 letter asked Idaho Department of Water Resources director to declare a drought emergency for the county. A drought emergency declaration would allow temporary changes to the use of water rights to ease drought impacts. The flow in the Little Wood and Big Wood river basins was roughly half of average in early July. Based on a June 10 analysis, Magic Reservoir was expected to deliver water through August 23 for the season. This winter’s snowfall was average, but the runoff was rapidly absorbed by the soil. The drought emergency declaration was approved for Blaine County on July 14. Idaho Mountain Express (Ketchum, Idaho), July 12, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more