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WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-230340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075- 077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-109-113-119-129-135-145-151-155- 159-165-167-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-191-193-195-199-203- 230340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LOGAN MCPHERSON MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/23/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-230340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075- 077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-109-113-119-129-135-145-151-155- 159-165-167-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-191-193-195-199-203- 230340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LOGAN MCPHERSON MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT Read more

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230243 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 900 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 The satellite presentation of Narda has continued to improve since the previous advisory, with deep convection featuring cloud tops colder than -80C bursting over the low-level center. A recent 0034 UTC WSFM microwave image confirms the improved organization, showing Narda beginning to develop an inner-core structure. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 3.5/55 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 44 to 60 kt. A blend of these data, along with the improved satellite appearance, supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt for this advisory. Narda is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 11 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. By late in the period, a mid-level low over southern California is forecast to erode the eastern portion of the ridge, causing the cyclone to slow down and turn northwestward around day 5. The official forecast track has been adjusted slightly south of the previous prediction during the next couple of days to account for the westward motion that has now begun, but it remains very close to the prior forecast from day 3 onward. The track forecast follows a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus aids, as well as the Google DeepMind/NOAA Eagle AI guidance. Narda will remain embedded within a moist air mass, over very warm waters, and in an environment of light to moderate easterly shear during the next couple of days. These factors should support steady strengthening. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates about a 50 percent probability of a 25-kt increase within 24 hours, and the intensity forecast reflects this. Narda is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Tuesday and could approach major hurricane status within a couple of days. By late in the forecast period, however, Narda will move into an environment with mid-level humidity below 50 percent and over waters cooler than 26C, which should result in steady to rapid weakening by day 5. The official intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope and is most closely aligned with the SHIPS and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.9N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.9N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.8N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.7N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.6N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 17.1N 122.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 18.7N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230242 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 110W 34 2 55(57) 27(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 110W 50 X 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 52(57) 27(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 31(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 15(57) 1(58) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 1(19) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 2(20) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 30(47) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 900 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 ...NARDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AND HEADING WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 105.1W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Narda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal sections of southern Mexico into Tuesday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...NARDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AND HEADING WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Sep 22 the center of Narda was located near 15.9, -105.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 230241 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.8N 109.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.6N 113.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 122.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 125.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

MD 2119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230018Z - 230215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle later this evening. Hail and wind are possible with this activity and a watch is being considered, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Midlevel heights are being suppressed across the southern Rockies this evening with an apparent vort over northern NM, ejecting east-northeast toward the High Plains. Latest radar imagery supports this with a substantial amount of weak convection arcing from northeast NM to northern Otero County NM. A secondary short wave is digging southeast across eastern UT, and this feature will advance into western CO late this evening. Net result will be a responsive LLJ that should increase across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwestern KS. Southeasterly boundary-layer flow is currently noted across the eastern TX Panhandle into eastern CO. This is contributing to a corridor of higher instability extending across the High Plains. 00z soundings from DDC and AMA exhibit very steep midlevel lapse rates, and large-scale ascent/moistening at midlevels is contributing to the aforementioned arcing band of convection. Latest thinking is sustained low-level warm advection will eventually aid robust thunderstorm development across western KS. This activity should propagate southeast, encouraged by the increasing LLJ. Hail and wind are the primary concerns and a watch is being considered. ..Darrow/Kerr.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36520127 38670200 38889985 37199883 36289976 36520127 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0617 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema