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No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 22 23:01:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KY...WESTERN WV...SOUTHEAST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 2118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...Eastern KY...Western WV...Southeast OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222214Z - 230015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of strong thunderstorms will affect parts of the Upper Ohio Valley this evening, with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The environment is only marginally favorable for severe storms, so a watch is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an increasingly organized line of thunderstorms extending from Highland County OH southward to Owsley County KY. These storms are moving at 30-35 knots, and have shown a history of locally strong wind gusts and a few trees down. While this activity will likely persist for several hours this evening, the pre-storm environment shows considerable mid-level moisture, weak lapse rates, and limited heating. MUCAPE values are only in the 700-1200 J/kg range, and low-level shear is modest. All of these variable suggest that the overall severe threat is marginal and is unlikely to warrant a watch. Nevertheless, we will continue to monitor trends and re-evaluate as needed. ..Hart/Kerr.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 37428379 39538307 40188223 39978070 38648095 37288316 37428379 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

There were 236 dry wells in Maine as of September 22, according to the dry well dashboard with most of the dry wells in Oxford County. Wells were going dry in West Paris. The water supply was short for South Berwick where the town gets its water from wells. The water district superintendent recommended that they reduce the amount of water being pumped by 20% to 30% because the ground was not recharging much. WGME-TV 13 Portland (Maine), Sep 22, 2025

MD 2117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...western Kansas into east-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222035Z - 222300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity over western Kansas, with additional development into eastern Colorado later this afternoon. Watch timing is uncertain, but probably needed by early evening. DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues over the central Plains, as cooling aloft with an upper trough overspreads the area, steepening lapse rates. A cluster of storms has already formed along a stationary front over northwest Kansas, and isolated hail may develop. Visible satellite also shows a cu field extending westward into eastern Colorado beneath the cirrus. Given the relatively early time of day, storm coverage is likely to increase as heating continues. During the evening, southeast winds at 850 mb will support lift and theta-e advection. Although midlevel winds will be weak, ample instability and lift should result in cells eventually merging into a propagating cluster later in the evening with wind threat. ..Jewell/Smith.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39090316 39150255 39320122 39500035 39369983 38679960 38350004 38250062 38250201 38230294 38480323 38790337 39090316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across much of the West through midweek, although light winds will reduce overall fire weather threat across the region. An upper-level low and associated deeper sub-tropical moisture will progress northward into central CA through Day 3/Wednesday. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across the Central CA Coast should move into Bay Area and Central Valley through Wednesday afternoon. Some dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern fringes of the initial moisture surge but quickly advancing higher surface relative humidity, increasing precipitable water and heavier rain cores should limit impact of new ignitions. ...Day 4/Thursday... A mid-level trough and stronger flow aloft entering the Pacific Northwest will promote increasing westerly flow over the Cascades into the Columbia Basin on Day 4/Thursday. The stronger west winds combined with a residual dry air mass will bring fire weather concerns back into the Columbia Basin and adjacent leeward Cascade slopes Thursday. Warm and dry conditions preceding this event will facilitate a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread. A 40% critical fire weather probability was maintained to cover this threat. Thunderstorm potential associated with the Central CA low will progress eastward into the southern Great Basin by Thursday, but fuels should remain resistant to new ignitions owing to recent precipitation across the region. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Minimal fire weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS will exist through early next week with a mid-level trough, surface low and low-level moisture promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The mid-level low impacting central CA midweek is expected to meander into the Desert Southwest, becoming more diffuse through the weekend. Appreciable wetting rains are possible across the portions of Southwest. Diurnal thunderstorms along higher terrain should expand northward into Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin by early next week although receptive fuels for new ignitions should be limited. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 20:36:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 21:27:09 GMT

Early planted corn and soybeans in Monroe County yielded nearly 200 bushels per acre and almost 70 bpa, respectively. The late season crops were not looking the best, so he anticipated worse yields on those. Many of the soybean pods have just two beans rather than three or four, and the beans were small. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sep 22, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 20:36:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 20:36:59 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222035 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 300 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 Narda continues to gradually gain strength. Visible satellite images indicate that banding features are becoming better organized, and there is some indication of an inner core forming. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt, based on the latest satellite intensity estimates that range from about 40 to 55 kt. Some of the outer rain bands are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and these bands could continue to graze the coast through tonight. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A general westward motion, away from Mexico, is expected through the week as the storm is primarily steered by a strong subtropical high pressure system to its north. By the weekend, a slight turn to the west-northwest is predicted when the system nears a weakness in the ridge. The models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is considerable spread at days 4 and 5. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and leans on the left side of the guidance in the long range toward the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind models, which have been performing well this year in the east Pacific basin. Narda is expected to continue to steadily strengthen during the next few days as it remains in generally conducive atmospheric conditions of low to moderate wind shear and a moist air mass while moving over warm SSTs. The system is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and could be near major hurricane strength in a couple of days. The storm is forecast to move into a more stable environment and over cool waters late in the week, and that should induce a gradual decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and near the high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with HCCA and Decay-SHIPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.2N 103.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 16.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.2N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 222034 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 27(39) 1(40) X(40) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 49(63) 2(65) X(65) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 31(47) 1(48) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 222034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 300 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 ...NARDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 103.9W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 103.9 West. Narda is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, with this general motion forecast to persist through the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal sections of southern Mexico through tonight. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Narda, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...NARDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Sep 22 the center of Narda was located near 16.2, -103.9 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.