Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 222033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N 107.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N 110.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

MD 2116 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota into west-central/southwestern Wisconsin and far northern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221943Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado could occur near an outflow boundary in west-central Wisconsin and vicinity. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...On the southern flank of a positively tilted trough in the upper Great Lakes region, a severe storm has developed south of La Crosse, WI. This storm has formed along the edge of outflow from earlier convection. Strong heating to the southwest of this activity has promoted around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Mississippi River. While storm coverage may remain isolated, 35 kts of 0-6 km shear (per KARX VAD) suggests supercells are possible. Mid-level lapse rates are modest, but cold air aloft would support large hail, especially with supercells. The KARX VAD also shows enlarged low-level hodographs (though low-level shear is larger in the cooler air). There will be at least a brief window for greater tornado potential along the outflow boundary before 850 mb veer later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Smith.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43619048 43389014 43169000 43019024 43059068 43219127 43309177 43399218 43489336 43759363 43999331 44039236 43799111 43619048 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

A burn ban was in effect for unincorporated portions of Bay County. The ban was enacted a day after a 50-acre fire scorched woodlands outside of Panama City Beach on Sept. 17. As of Sept. 18, the blaze was 100% contained. Panama City New Herald (Fla.), Sep 19, 2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

MD 2115 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 2115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky into central Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221728Z - 222030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Corridors of strong to damaging gusts may develop after 20Z from southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky into central Ohio. DISCUSSION...An area of rain and thunderstorms associated with a midlevel disturbance is currently moving across southern Indiana. Ahead of this feature, scattered showers are evident in association with low-level warm advection over southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Heating and destabilization is most prominent south of these features into Kentucky, where visible satellite imagery shows areas of clearing. Precipitable water values are over 1.50", with MLCAPE currently in the 500-1000 J/kg range. As the midlevel wave translates northeast across Indiana and into Ohio, boundary layer mixing with gusty southwest winds during the peak heating hours will lead to strengthening storms, possibly linear in nature. Mean wind speeds of 30-40 kt in the low to mid levels and ample downdraft mass will result in strong wind gusts, perhaps damaging in spots. Any such line of storms tied to the vorticity max could exhibit periods of weak low-level rotation as well, perhaps resulting in localized severe gusts. ..Jewell/Smith.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38528580 39188494 40378342 40478278 40558197 40248174 39388181 38198292 38038367 37778611 38078627 38528580 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more