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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/22/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 14:34:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 15:27:44 GMT

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation issued an order for all Town Forest Fire Wardens to stop issuing burning permits from noon on Sept. 22, until the order is revoked. “Persistent dry conditions coupled with dry falling leaves create a high risk for rapid fire spread,” according to Dan Dillner, forest fire supervisor. “With ground water deficits, fires will burn into the soil, consuming dried organic matter as fuel. These fires require considerable resources to contain and extinguish.” Saint Albans Messenger (Vt.), Sep 22, 2025

In Keene, all burn permits, permitted outdoor fires, and consumer fireworks were suspended until further notice. The suspension, which began Sept. 18, was to remain in place as long as the “High Fire Danger” warning banner was posted. My Keene Now (N.H.), Sep 22, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 14:34:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 14:34:36 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221432 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 900 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 Narda is slowly strengthening just off the coast of southern Mexico. The storm has been maintaining a small area of central convection and a larger area of thunderstorms well west-northwest of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 45 kt. Some of the outer bands are affecting portions of the coast of Mexico, and could result in locally heavy rains and gusty winds. The storm is estimated to be moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A general westward motion, away from Mexico, is expected through the week as the storm is primarily steered by a strong subtropical high pressure system to its north. By the weekend, a slight turn to the west-northwest is predicted. The models are in fair agreement, but there are notable differences in the predicted forward speed, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, giving more weight to the Google Deep Mind model. The environmental conditions appear generally conducive for the system to strengthen with the wind shear expected to be light to moderate while it moves within a moist airmass over warm SSTs. Narda is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and will likely continue to strengthen over the next few days. The system is forecast to move into a more stable environment and over cool waters late in the week, and that should induce a gradual decay. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.3N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 16.0N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221432 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 22(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 2(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 60(66) 2(68) X(68) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) 2(54) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 193 WTPZ24 KNHC 221431 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.9W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.9W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 106.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 192 WTPZ34 KNHC 221431 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 900 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 ...NARDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 102.9W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.9 West. Narda is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion forecast to persist through the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal sections of southern Mexico through tonight. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Narda, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...NARDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Sep 22 the center of Narda was located near 15.7, -102.9 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective development today and tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest, and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes. ...Southern/Central Plains... With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon, robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability extending from western KS southeastward into OK. It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat, with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS. This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed based on latest guidance trends. ...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity. Greater instability should be present across this region compared to locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this evening as clustering occurs. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a greater concentration of strong convection across parts of central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective development today and tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest, and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes. ...Southern/Central Plains... With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon, robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability extending from western KS southeastward into OK. It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat, with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS. This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed based on latest guidance trends. ...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity. Greater instability should be present across this region compared to locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this evening as clustering occurs. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a greater concentration of strong convection across parts of central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective development today and tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest, and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes. ...Southern/Central Plains... With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon, robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability extending from western KS southeastward into OK. It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat, with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS. This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed based on latest guidance trends. ...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity. Greater instability should be present across this region compared to locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this evening as clustering occurs. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a greater concentration of strong convection across parts of central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective development today and tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest, and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes. ...Southern/Central Plains... With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon, robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability extending from western KS southeastward into OK. It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat, with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS. This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed based on latest guidance trends. ...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity. Greater instability should be present across this region compared to locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this evening as clustering occurs. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a greater concentration of strong convection across parts of central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective development today and tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest, and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes. ...Southern/Central Plains... With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon, robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability extending from western KS southeastward into OK. It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat, with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS. This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed based on latest guidance trends. ...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity. Greater instability should be present across this region compared to locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this evening as clustering occurs. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a greater concentration of strong convection across parts of central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 08:58:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 09:27:22 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Narda are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Narda are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION IN THE WEST ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ...South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloud cover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION IN THE WEST ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ...South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloud cover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more