Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION IN THE WEST ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ...South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloud cover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 08:58:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 09:27:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 08:58:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 08:58:52 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220854 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 300 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 The satellite presentation of Narda has shown some improvement since the previous advisory, with a well-defined curved band developing north of the center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 37 to 43 kt. A blend of these data, along with the improved satellite appearance, supports raising the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Narda is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 10 kt. A turn toward the west is expected later today as a mid-level ridge builds over northern Mexico. This westward motion is then forecast to continue for the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a strengthening ridge to its north and northwest. By late in the period, a mid-level low over southern California is expected to erode the eastern portion of the ridge, causing the cyclone to slow down and turn toward the northwest around day 5. The official forecast track has been adjusted slightly south of the previous one to better align with the latest consensus aids, and lies between the consensus guidance and the prior forecast. Narda will remain embedded within a moist air mass, over very warm waters, and in an environment of light to moderate east-northeasterly shear during the next couple of days. These factors should support steady strengthening, and Narda is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday. By around 60 hours, easterly shear is expected to increase to 20–25 kt, which should slow the rate of intensification. By late in the forecast period, although the shear is forecast to relax, cooler sea surface temperatures and mid-level humidities falling below 50 percent should result in some weakening. The official intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope, close to the previous forecast, and most closely aligned with the SHIPS and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.4N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 16.2N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.2N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 16.2N 114.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 16.6N 119.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220853 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 2 24(26) 6(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 105W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 9 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 37(47) 9(56) 1(57) X(57) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 12(29) 1(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 7(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 10(56) 1(57) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 8(39) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220852 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 300 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 ...NARDA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 101.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 101.5 West. Narda is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion then continuing through mid week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal sections of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...NARDA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Sep 22 the center of Narda was located near 15.4, -101.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 220852 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 109.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.2N 114.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 16.6N 119.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted mid-level trough around the Great Lakes on Thu/D4 will move across the Northeast by Fri/D5. A weak surface low will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday with a cold front extending southwest from that low. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front will support some instability, but it will remain mostly weak amid weak lapse rates. Moderate mid-level southwesterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization if pockets of greater instability can develop. At this time, it appears a few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, but a more organized severe threat is not anticipated. On D5/Friday the remnant cold front will likely reside somewhere near the Southeast coast. A few stronger storms will be possible along this front on Friday before it pushes into the Atlantic on Friday night. In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will build into much of the eastern CONUS. This will result in low severe weather probabilities amid a dry, continental airmass. Rich low-level moisture will remain offshore into the early part of next week and keep severe weather potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted mid-level trough around the Great Lakes on Thu/D4 will move across the Northeast by Fri/D5. A weak surface low will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday with a cold front extending southwest from that low. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front will support some instability, but it will remain mostly weak amid weak lapse rates. Moderate mid-level southwesterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization if pockets of greater instability can develop. At this time, it appears a few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, but a more organized severe threat is not anticipated. On D5/Friday the remnant cold front will likely reside somewhere near the Southeast coast. A few stronger storms will be possible along this front on Friday before it pushes into the Atlantic on Friday night. In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will build into much of the eastern CONUS. This will result in low severe weather probabilities amid a dry, continental airmass. Rich low-level moisture will remain offshore into the early part of next week and keep severe weather potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted mid-level trough around the Great Lakes on Thu/D4 will move across the Northeast by Fri/D5. A weak surface low will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday with a cold front extending southwest from that low. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front will support some instability, but it will remain mostly weak amid weak lapse rates. Moderate mid-level southwesterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization if pockets of greater instability can develop. At this time, it appears a few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, but a more organized severe threat is not anticipated. On D5/Friday the remnant cold front will likely reside somewhere near the Southeast coast. A few stronger storms will be possible along this front on Friday before it pushes into the Atlantic on Friday night. In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will build into much of the eastern CONUS. This will result in low severe weather probabilities amid a dry, continental airmass. Rich low-level moisture will remain offshore into the early part of next week and keep severe weather potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted mid-level trough around the Great Lakes on Thu/D4 will move across the Northeast by Fri/D5. A weak surface low will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday with a cold front extending southwest from that low. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front will support some instability, but it will remain mostly weak amid weak lapse rates. Moderate mid-level southwesterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization if pockets of greater instability can develop. At this time, it appears a few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, but a more organized severe threat is not anticipated. On D5/Friday the remnant cold front will likely reside somewhere near the Southeast coast. A few stronger storms will be possible along this front on Friday before it pushes into the Atlantic on Friday night. In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will build into much of the eastern CONUS. This will result in low severe weather probabilities amid a dry, continental airmass. Rich low-level moisture will remain offshore into the early part of next week and keep severe weather potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted mid-level trough around the Great Lakes on Thu/D4 will move across the Northeast by Fri/D5. A weak surface low will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday with a cold front extending southwest from that low. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front will support some instability, but it will remain mostly weak amid weak lapse rates. Moderate mid-level southwesterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization if pockets of greater instability can develop. At this time, it appears a few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, but a more organized severe threat is not anticipated. On D5/Friday the remnant cold front will likely reside somewhere near the Southeast coast. A few stronger storms will be possible along this front on Friday before it pushes into the Atlantic on Friday night. In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will build into much of the eastern CONUS. This will result in low severe weather probabilities amid a dry, continental airmass. Rich low-level moisture will remain offshore into the early part of next week and keep severe weather potential low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ...South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloudcover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ...South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloudcover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ...South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloudcover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ...South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloudcover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across eastern Colorado and shift east through the day to the Missouri Valley region by 12Z Wednesday. A 40 to 50 knot mid-level jet streak associated with overnight convection Monday night across KS/OK will shift east across MO/AR during the day Tuesday and gradually weaken. In its wake, the primary mid-level jet streak will emerge across Oklahoma and strengthen Tuesday night as it moves from Oklahoma into Arkansas. A weak surface low is forecast to be across northwest Oklahoma Tuesday morning. This surface low and its associated cold front will drift slowly east through the day. ...Eastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas and northeast Texas... A large MCS will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma on the nose of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens during the morning and storms move east of the greatest shear/instability, expect the MCS to weaken. Some isolated damaging wind gusts may persist across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and into TN/KY, but expect this activity to remain mostly sub-severe. The primary severe weather concern will be Tuesday afternoon/evening across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Strong instability is forecast across this region in the wake of the morning MCS as cool temperatures aloft overspread low to mid 70s dewpoints. RAP/NAM forecast soundings show only modest heating is necessary to erode inhibition. Therefore, expect additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across Oklahoma. Storm motion orthogonal to the front should favor movement along and perhaps off of the front and into the warm sector. Therefore, all severe hazards will be possible across this region in a favorable environment featuring strong instability, moderate deep-layer shear, and elongating, cyclonically curved hodographs. A conditional, potentially more volatile tornado threat is possible across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas if significant destabilization can occur north of any outflow boundary left by morning convection. 03Z RAP/00Z NAM forecast soundings near Fort Smith capture this conditional environment well and would potentially support strong tornadoes. However, this evolution is highly dependent on the evolution of Day 1 convection across Kansas and Oklahoma which still remains unclear. In addition, the time window for this favorable environment would be narrow which also adds conditionality to the risk. This scenario will be monitored closely and a Level 3/Enhanced Risk may be justified in later outlooks if this scenario appears more likely. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front and dryline intersect across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... A weak warm front may be a focus for storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening across western/middle Tennessee as moderate instability develops across the region. Deep-layer shear should remain quite weak (less than 20 knots) as the primary mid-level jet streak remains farther west. However, a few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts may develop during the afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across eastern Colorado and shift east through the day to the Missouri Valley region by 12Z Wednesday. A 40 to 50 knot mid-level jet streak associated with overnight convection Monday night across KS/OK will shift east across MO/AR during the day Tuesday and gradually weaken. In its wake, the primary mid-level jet streak will emerge across Oklahoma and strengthen Tuesday night as it moves from Oklahoma into Arkansas. A weak surface low is forecast to be across northwest Oklahoma Tuesday morning. This surface low and its associated cold front will drift slowly east through the day. ...Eastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas and northeast Texas... A large MCS will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma on the nose of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens during the morning and storms move east of the greatest shear/instability, expect the MCS to weaken. Some isolated damaging wind gusts may persist across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and into TN/KY, but expect this activity to remain mostly sub-severe. The primary severe weather concern will be Tuesday afternoon/evening across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Strong instability is forecast across this region in the wake of the morning MCS as cool temperatures aloft overspread low to mid 70s dewpoints. RAP/NAM forecast soundings show only modest heating is necessary to erode inhibition. Therefore, expect additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across Oklahoma. Storm motion orthogonal to the front should favor movement along and perhaps off of the front and into the warm sector. Therefore, all severe hazards will be possible across this region in a favorable environment featuring strong instability, moderate deep-layer shear, and elongating, cyclonically curved hodographs. A conditional, potentially more volatile tornado threat is possible across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas if significant destabilization can occur north of any outflow boundary left by morning convection. 03Z RAP/00Z NAM forecast soundings near Fort Smith capture this conditional environment well and would potentially support strong tornadoes. However, this evolution is highly dependent on the evolution of Day 1 convection across Kansas and Oklahoma which still remains unclear. In addition, the time window for this favorable environment would be narrow which also adds conditionality to the risk. This scenario will be monitored closely and a Level 3/Enhanced Risk may be justified in later outlooks if this scenario appears more likely. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front and dryline intersect across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... A weak warm front may be a focus for storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening across western/middle Tennessee as moderate instability develops across the region. Deep-layer shear should remain quite weak (less than 20 knots) as the primary mid-level jet streak remains farther west. However, a few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts may develop during the afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across eastern Colorado and shift east through the day to the Missouri Valley region by 12Z Wednesday. A 40 to 50 knot mid-level jet streak associated with overnight convection Monday night across KS/OK will shift east across MO/AR during the day Tuesday and gradually weaken. In its wake, the primary mid-level jet streak will emerge across Oklahoma and strengthen Tuesday night as it moves from Oklahoma into Arkansas. A weak surface low is forecast to be across northwest Oklahoma Tuesday morning. This surface low and its associated cold front will drift slowly east through the day. ...Eastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas and northeast Texas... A large MCS will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma on the nose of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens during the morning and storms move east of the greatest shear/instability, expect the MCS to weaken. Some isolated damaging wind gusts may persist across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and into TN/KY, but expect this activity to remain mostly sub-severe. The primary severe weather concern will be Tuesday afternoon/evening across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Strong instability is forecast across this region in the wake of the morning MCS as cool temperatures aloft overspread low to mid 70s dewpoints. RAP/NAM forecast soundings show only modest heating is necessary to erode inhibition. Therefore, expect additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across Oklahoma. Storm motion orthogonal to the front should favor movement along and perhaps off of the front and into the warm sector. Therefore, all severe hazards will be possible across this region in a favorable environment featuring strong instability, moderate deep-layer shear, and elongating, cyclonically curved hodographs. A conditional, potentially more volatile tornado threat is possible across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas if significant destabilization can occur north of any outflow boundary left by morning convection. 03Z RAP/00Z NAM forecast soundings near Fort Smith capture this conditional environment well and would potentially support strong tornadoes. However, this evolution is highly dependent on the evolution of Day 1 convection across Kansas and Oklahoma which still remains unclear. In addition, the time window for this favorable environment would be narrow which also adds conditionality to the risk. This scenario will be monitored closely and a Level 3/Enhanced Risk may be justified in later outlooks if this scenario appears more likely. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front and dryline intersect across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... A weak warm front may be a focus for storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening across western/middle Tennessee as moderate instability develops across the region. Deep-layer shear should remain quite weak (less than 20 knots) as the primary mid-level jet streak remains farther west. However, a few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts may develop during the afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025 Read more