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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...and far northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212003Z - 212200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple strong storms may pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and possibly marginal hail through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented midlevel trough moving slowly eastward across central OK, while an accompanying MCV and related outflow boundary continue eastward across eastern OK. Despite substantial cloud coverage ahead of the trough, the boundary layer has warmed into the 80s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints (contributing to moderate surface-based buoyancy) in the vicinity of the outflow boundary. While the SRX/INX VWPs are only showing around 20 kt of 0-6 km shear, this should continue strengthening to around 30 kt as stronger midlevel flow accompanying the trough (sampled by TLX VWP) overspreads the area. This may support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging gusts and possibly marginal hail through the afternoon. ..Weinman/Smith.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34179605 34729601 35409575 35779577 36109565 36429536 36509483 36439412 35899380 34989385 34279421 33669467 33539518 33749581 34179605 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Sep 2025 20:38:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Sep 2025 21:26:46 GMT

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 21 20:48:01 UTC 2025.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Sep 2025 20:38:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Sep 2025 20:38:37 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 300 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of deep convection. A recent scatterometer pass showed a well-defined circulation, albeit a bit elongated, along with a large area of 30-35 kt winds on the northern side. Thus, a tropical storm has formed, and Narda's intensity is set to 35 kt, consistent with the scatterometer winds and the 18Z TAFB classification of T2.5. Narda appears to be moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The storm should turn west-northwestward by tomorrow and westward in a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed due to a large ridge over northwestern Mexico. The biggest difference in the track guidance is related to how fast Narda moves. The NHC forecast is on the quick side of the guidance, given the strength of the ridge and following the lead of the corrected-consensus guidance. None of the models bring tropical-storm-force winds near Mexico at this time, so no watches seem to be needed. The storm should be over warm waters with moderate northeasterly shear for the next several days. The model guidance respond to this environment by generally showing gradual intensification for the next few days, followed by a leveling off as the storm passes over marginally warm waters. While the models are in fairly good agreement for an initial forecast, this shouldn't be considered too confident because of the well-known predictability challenges of a moderate-shear environment. The NHC forecast lies between the model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.7N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 15.5N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 16.5N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 16.7N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 212035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ACAPULCO 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 2(40) X(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 3(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) 2(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 1(38) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 300 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 99.7W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 99.7 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn to the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow. Narda should be moving faster to the west by midweek. Satellite-derived winds indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Sep 21 the center of Narda was located near 14.7, -99.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 99.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 99.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 100.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

MD 2108 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 2108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern into eastern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211824Z - 212030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A northeasterly moving cluster of storms may produce isolated wind damage as low-level lapse rates become more favorable this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A weak MCV in northern Kentucky has promoted the development of a small cluster of storms in southern Ohio. This activity is expected to move northeast through the afternoon. The morning observed sounding from Wilmington suggests that MLCIN has just now eroded as temperatures have risen into the low/mid 80s F. Continued heating should steepen low-level lapse rates further. The KILN VAD shows under 20 kts of 0-6 km shear and the mid-level lapse rates observed on the sounding were also quite modest (~6 C/km). Without stronger low-level flow or more robust updrafts, the potential for wind damage with this cluster is likely to remain spatially and temporally limited. ..Wendt/Smith.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 38448389 39128454 39898397 41178249 41208158 40758133 39348222 38498318 38448389 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more