Aggregator

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ABI TO 40 W MWL TO 30 SW GYI TO 10 E ADM. ..SPC..09/22/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-069-095-220140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN JOHNSTON MARSHALL TXC085-113-121-133-181-363-367-429-439-497-220140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND GRAYSON PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS TARRANT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 616 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 212115Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Northwest into North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and intensify into this early this evening. A few supercells are possible and the stronger storms will be capable of a threat for large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Abilene TX to 15 miles southeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35010. ...Smith Read more

MD 2113 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616... Valid 212247Z - 220045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorm clusters will continue propagating southeast across ww616. Wind and hail remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel vort over northeast OK digging southeast toward northwest AR. Southwestern influence of the associated trough appears to be aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across portions of north Texas into extreme south central Oklahoma. Strong boundary-layer heating has proven instrumental in destabilization near the frontal zone and 0-3km lapse rates are quite steep across north Texas. Latest MRMS data suggests at least three robust updrafts are likely generating large hail, one over eastern Young County, northern Denton County, and southeast Grayson County. Northwesterly flow is gradually strengthen over the next several hours, so this activity should continue propagating southeast toward the I-20 corridor, including the Metroplex. Hail and wind can be expected with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33329997 34459622 33149621 32009997 33329997 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Sep 2025 20:38:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Sep 2025 21:26:46 GMT

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/21/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-069-085-095-220040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL TXC059-085-097-113-121-133-181-207-237-253-337-363-367-417-429- 439-441-447-497-503-220040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND GRAYSON HASKELL JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 2113 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616... Valid 212247Z - 220045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorm clusters will continue propagating southeast across ww616. Wind and hail remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel vort over northeast OK digging southeast toward northwest AR. Southwestern influence of the associated trough appears to be aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across portions of north Texas into extreme south central Oklahoma. Strong boundary-layer heating has proven instrumental in destabilization near the frontal zone and 0-3km lapse rates are quite steep across north Texas. Latest MRMS data suggests at least three robust updrafts are likely generating large hail, one over eastern Young County, northern Denton County, and southeast Grayson County. Northwesterly flow is gradually strengthen over the next several hours, so this activity should continue propagating southeast toward the I-20 corridor, including the Metroplex. Hail and wind can be expected with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33329997 34459622 33149621 32009997 33329997 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 616 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 212115Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Northwest into North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and intensify into this early this evening. A few supercells are possible and the stronger storms will be capable of a threat for large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Abilene TX to 15 miles southeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35010. ...Smith Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Narda, located a couple of hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Narda are issued under WMO header
WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Narda are issued under WMO header
WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

MD 2112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212143Z - 212315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with merging storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered pulse-cellular and multicellular storms, which have been ongoing for the past few hours, are showing signs of merging. Furthermore, increasing lightning trends suggests that some of these storms may be intensifying. Vertical wind shear is poor, though up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE precede the clustering storms per 21Z mesoanalysis. As such, the amalgamation of storms may result in strong enough cold pool mergers and subsequent outflow to support a damaging gust or two through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX... LAT...LON 39469303 40099119 40289022 40118966 39808917 39418896 39008925 38828970 38719025 38569087 38499134 38479189 39469303 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 2111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern South Dakota into far southwestern Minnesota and extreme northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212133Z - 212300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the afternoon. The strongest storms may produce an instance of marginally severe wind/hail or a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Scattered multicellular storms have developed amid peak heating and are gradually increasing in coverage with the passage of a pronounced 500 mb shortwave trough/vorticity maximum to the north. These storms are developing atop a mixed boundary layer, but with relatively mediocre mid-level lapse rates (e.g. around 6 C/km). As such, buoyancy is weak, with about 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE constrained to tall, thin profiles per RAP forecast soundings. Deep-layer shear is not strong, with 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear noted per 21Z mesoanalysis. Nonetheless, appreciable turning of the winds with height, along with some strengthening, is supporting low-level hodographs with some curvature. Multicells will therefore remain the primary mode of convection of the more mature storms that become sustained, though a transient supercell or two is possible. A couple instances of marginally severe hail, wind, or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 44079730 44979470 45039377 44779305 44339277 43889280 43499314 43149395 43049506 43129603 43299670 43529699 44079730 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/21/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-069-085-095-212340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL TXC009-023-059-077-085-097-113-121-133-181-207-237-253-337-363- 367-417-429-439-441-447-497-503-212340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN CLAY COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND GRAYSON HASKELL JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 2110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Parts of north Texas and far south-central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 212046Z - 212245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk will increase over the next few hours. The primary concerns will be large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch may be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate a remnant outflow boundary shifting slightly northward in north-central TX -- potentially in response to an evolving surface low over the Rolling Plains. Boundary-layer cumulus is deepening along the outflow boundary, and isolated convective initiation is underway. Ample diurnal heating/destabilization amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints and steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate surface-based buoyancy. This buoyancy and around 50 kt of effective shear (with enhanced low-level clockwise curvature) should initially favor a couple semi-discrete supercells -- with a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts. With time, storms may congeal into clusters while tracking east-southeastward, which would promote an increasing severe-wind risk. While the primary concern for severe storms is in north TX, a couple strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail will remain possible across southern OK. While storm coverage and the spatial extent of the threat is somewhat uncertain, a watch may be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Smith.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 32629696 32339782 32199894 32349948 32839993 33260002 33589983 33819899 34089796 34579706 34599647 34159610 33469638 32629696 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level low situated southwest of CA on Day 3/Tuesday will slowly meander into central CA through Day 5/Thursday. This low will lift sub-tropical moisture and cloud cover northward into southern and central CA by midweek, promoting cooler temperatures and increasing potential for wetting rains. Limited instability and thunderstorm coverage as well as lack of receptive fuels should limit new ignition potential during this time. Farther north, ridging aloft and a coinciding coastal thermal surface trough will promote a warming and drying trend through midweek across northern CA, OR/WA coasts and adjacent coastal ranges. Low daytime relative humidity, poor overnight recoveries Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday and warm temperatures will support drying of fuels along the coastal ranges, but east to northeast offshore winds will be light, limiting the overall fire weather threat. Another mid-level shortwave and induced increased onshore flow is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday. The increasing west winds lee of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin along with a residual dry boundary layer from several days of warm and dry conditions combined with receptive fuels could promote higher wildfire spread potential. Introduced 40% critical probabilities to highlight this anticipated fire weather threat for the Columbia Basin. ...Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday... The mid-level low in CA on Day 5/Thursday will only slowly move into the Southwest and diffuse through Day 8/Sunday. Residual moisture associated with the low and daytime instability will support showers and thunderstorms across the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the weekend. However, fuels are not particularly supportive of new ignitions. ...Eastern CONUS... Mid-level troughing and a surface low pressure system will promote widespread wetting rains across much of the eastern U.S. through the week, mitigating fire weather concerns as well as reducing fuel dryness. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more