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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Recent satellite-derived winds
indicate that this system is producing near gale-force winds, with
a better defined low-level circulation. Environmental conditions
remain favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or
tonight. This system is forecast to move westward at 5 to 10 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico,
and locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of this
coastline through Monday. For additional information, including
storm warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 21 17:50:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the upper wave and cold front approach from the west. Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas. A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from 00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now, confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with this outlook. ...NE/IA to Lake Michigan... Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa. While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk was added to account for this risk. ...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. A cold front associated with a mid-level trough is advancing through the Pacific Northwest. Expansive cloud cover, higher relative humidity and some rainfall is pushing eastward over the Cascades and into the Columbia Basin, mitigating overall fire weather concerns within a relatively dry fuelscape. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Generally weak surface winds across the continental U.S., and higher relative humidity and precipitation across the few localized regions of higher winds, will result in minimal fire-weather concerns today. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... Winds in the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin are still forecast to gust as high as 20 MPH. While these winds could impact existing fires across the area, relative humidity is not forecast to get below 30% in large part due to cloud cover and precipitation. Therefore, fire-weather highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. A cold front associated with a mid-level trough is advancing through the Pacific Northwest. Expansive cloud cover, higher relative humidity and some rainfall is pushing eastward over the Cascades and into the Columbia Basin, mitigating overall fire weather concerns within a relatively dry fuelscape. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Generally weak surface winds across the continental U.S., and higher relative humidity and precipitation across the few localized regions of higher winds, will result in minimal fire-weather concerns today. ...North Cascades into the Columbia Basin... Winds in the Cascade gaps and into the Columbia Basin are still forecast to gust as high as 20 MPH. While these winds could impact existing fires across the area, relative humidity is not forecast to get below 30% in large part due to cloud cover and precipitation. Therefore, fire-weather highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more