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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across a broad portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and also from the mid Missouri Valley into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of western/central OK and western north TX in association with a weak MCV and modest low-level warm/moist advection. Convectively reinforced outflow from this morning activity should be draped along/near the Red River this afternoon, with a rich low-level moisture present to its south. Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow should gradually strengthen through the day across north TX/southern OK as a weak mid-level perturbation moves southeastward from the southern/central High Plains. A favorable combination of moderate instability aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, will likely prove favorable for thunderstorm organization. Most guidance suggests multiple thunderstorms will develop and become supercellular this afternoon across parts of north TX and southern OK. Scattered severe hail should be the main threat with this convection as it spreads southeastward through the early evening. Strengthening MLCIN with time this evening should result in a weakening trend as this activity approaches the DFW metroplex, but isolated large hail and gusty winds will remain possible until convection dissipates. Given increased confidence in supercells developing, have added a focused Slight Risk for large hail with this update. Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward today across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. One notable MCV with ongoing convection is also noted this morning across central KS. Filtered diurnal heating should aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Recent visible satellite imagery across these regions show generally widespread cloudiness, which may hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain rather poor (reference ILX/ILN/DTX observed 12Z soundings). Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still appears possible that isolated damaging winds could occur with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and spread generally east-northeastward. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern ND into MN today. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southwest MN into adjacent southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Cool temperatures aloft, weak to moderate instability, and effective bulk shear around 25-35 kt should support multicells and perhaps a couple splitting supercells. Hail is expected to the primary severe hazard with any thunderstorms that can be sustained, but confidence in this occurring before this evening is low. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across a broad portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and also from the mid Missouri Valley into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of western/central OK and western north TX in association with a weak MCV and modest low-level warm/moist advection. Convectively reinforced outflow from this morning activity should be draped along/near the Red River this afternoon, with a rich low-level moisture present to its south. Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow should gradually strengthen through the day across north TX/southern OK as a weak mid-level perturbation moves southeastward from the southern/central High Plains. A favorable combination of moderate instability aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, will likely prove favorable for thunderstorm organization. Most guidance suggests multiple thunderstorms will develop and become supercellular this afternoon across parts of north TX and southern OK. Scattered severe hail should be the main threat with this convection as it spreads southeastward through the early evening. Strengthening MLCIN with time this evening should result in a weakening trend as this activity approaches the DFW metroplex, but isolated large hail and gusty winds will remain possible until convection dissipates. Given increased confidence in supercells developing, have added a focused Slight Risk for large hail with this update. Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward today across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. One notable MCV with ongoing convection is also noted this morning across central KS. Filtered diurnal heating should aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Recent visible satellite imagery across these regions show generally widespread cloudiness, which may hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain rather poor (reference ILX/ILN/DTX observed 12Z soundings). Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still appears possible that isolated damaging winds could occur with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and spread generally east-northeastward. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern ND into MN today. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southwest MN into adjacent southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Cool temperatures aloft, weak to moderate instability, and effective bulk shear around 25-35 kt should support multicells and perhaps a couple splitting supercells. Hail is expected to the primary severe hazard with any thunderstorms that can be sustained, but confidence in this occurring before this evening is low. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across a broad portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and also from the mid Missouri Valley into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of western/central OK and western north TX in association with a weak MCV and modest low-level warm/moist advection. Convectively reinforced outflow from this morning activity should be draped along/near the Red River this afternoon, with a rich low-level moisture present to its south. Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow should gradually strengthen through the day across north TX/southern OK as a weak mid-level perturbation moves southeastward from the southern/central High Plains. A favorable combination of moderate instability aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, will likely prove favorable for thunderstorm organization. Most guidance suggests multiple thunderstorms will develop and become supercellular this afternoon across parts of north TX and southern OK. Scattered severe hail should be the main threat with this convection as it spreads southeastward through the early evening. Strengthening MLCIN with time this evening should result in a weakening trend as this activity approaches the DFW metroplex, but isolated large hail and gusty winds will remain possible until convection dissipates. Given increased confidence in supercells developing, have added a focused Slight Risk for large hail with this update. Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward today across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. One notable MCV with ongoing convection is also noted this morning across central KS. Filtered diurnal heating should aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Recent visible satellite imagery across these regions show generally widespread cloudiness, which may hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain rather poor (reference ILX/ILN/DTX observed 12Z soundings). Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still appears possible that isolated damaging winds could occur with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and spread generally east-northeastward. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern ND into MN today. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southwest MN into adjacent southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Cool temperatures aloft, weak to moderate instability, and effective bulk shear around 25-35 kt should support multicells and perhaps a couple splitting supercells. Hail is expected to the primary severe hazard with any thunderstorms that can be sustained, but confidence in this occurring before this evening is low. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/21/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the
next day or so. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico, and locally heavy rainfall is possible along
portions of this coastline through Monday. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see the High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday with differing model solutions of the trough evolution by next weekend and beyond. Regardless of the exact solution, severe weather chances should be low from Saturday and beyond as high pressure builds into the eastern CONUS and pushes moisture offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf. Some severe weather is possible across portions of the Southeast on Day 4/Wed to Day 6/Fri as moisture remains onshore ahead of the mid-level trough. ...D4/Wed - Lower Mississippi River Valley... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are anticipated within the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. A zone of moderate instability may develop within this moisture plume from Louisiana into Arkansas and Mississippi. Guidance varies greatly on the evolution of the mid-level trough as it advances east on Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the specific location and intensity of any severe weather threat on Wednesday. However, even if a less amplified, more subdued mid-level pattern evolves, some severe weather could exist across the Lower Mississippi Valley as moderate mid-level flow overspreads moderate instability within the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday with differing model solutions of the trough evolution by next weekend and beyond. Regardless of the exact solution, severe weather chances should be low from Saturday and beyond as high pressure builds into the eastern CONUS and pushes moisture offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf. Some severe weather is possible across portions of the Southeast on Day 4/Wed to Day 6/Fri as moisture remains onshore ahead of the mid-level trough. ...D4/Wed - Lower Mississippi River Valley... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are anticipated within the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. A zone of moderate instability may develop within this moisture plume from Louisiana into Arkansas and Mississippi. Guidance varies greatly on the evolution of the mid-level trough as it advances east on Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the specific location and intensity of any severe weather threat on Wednesday. However, even if a less amplified, more subdued mid-level pattern evolves, some severe weather could exist across the Lower Mississippi Valley as moderate mid-level flow overspreads moderate instability within the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday with differing model solutions of the trough evolution by next weekend and beyond. Regardless of the exact solution, severe weather chances should be low from Saturday and beyond as high pressure builds into the eastern CONUS and pushes moisture offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf. Some severe weather is possible across portions of the Southeast on Day 4/Wed to Day 6/Fri as moisture remains onshore ahead of the mid-level trough. ...D4/Wed - Lower Mississippi River Valley... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are anticipated within the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. A zone of moderate instability may develop within this moisture plume from Louisiana into Arkansas and Mississippi. Guidance varies greatly on the evolution of the mid-level trough as it advances east on Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the specific location and intensity of any severe weather threat on Wednesday. However, even if a less amplified, more subdued mid-level pattern evolves, some severe weather could exist across the Lower Mississippi Valley as moderate mid-level flow overspreads moderate instability within the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday with differing model solutions of the trough evolution by next weekend and beyond. Regardless of the exact solution, severe weather chances should be low from Saturday and beyond as high pressure builds into the eastern CONUS and pushes moisture offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf. Some severe weather is possible across portions of the Southeast on Day 4/Wed to Day 6/Fri as moisture remains onshore ahead of the mid-level trough. ...D4/Wed - Lower Mississippi River Valley... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are anticipated within the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. A zone of moderate instability may develop within this moisture plume from Louisiana into Arkansas and Mississippi. Guidance varies greatly on the evolution of the mid-level trough as it advances east on Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the specific location and intensity of any severe weather threat on Wednesday. However, even if a less amplified, more subdued mid-level pattern evolves, some severe weather could exist across the Lower Mississippi Valley as moderate mid-level flow overspreads moderate instability within the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday with differing model solutions of the trough evolution by next weekend and beyond. Regardless of the exact solution, severe weather chances should be low from Saturday and beyond as high pressure builds into the eastern CONUS and pushes moisture offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf. Some severe weather is possible across portions of the Southeast on Day 4/Wed to Day 6/Fri as moisture remains onshore ahead of the mid-level trough. ...D4/Wed - Lower Mississippi River Valley... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are anticipated within the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. A zone of moderate instability may develop within this moisture plume from Louisiana into Arkansas and Mississippi. Guidance varies greatly on the evolution of the mid-level trough as it advances east on Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the specific location and intensity of any severe weather threat on Wednesday. However, even if a less amplified, more subdued mid-level pattern evolves, some severe weather could exist across the Lower Mississippi Valley as moderate mid-level flow overspreads moderate instability within the region. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Discussion... A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere across eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday morning. A moist airmass with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be in place downstream of these thunderstorms. Only modest weakening of the low-level jet will occur Tuesday morning and therefore, this MCS should remain through much of the day. If sufficient destabilization can occur across Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western TN/KY, some marginal damaging wind threat could accompany this MCS as it moves east through the morning and into the afternoon. Farther west, moderate destabilization is expected across the ArkLaTex and north Texas. A cold front will strengthen/sharpen across Oklahoma and move southeast through the day. Convergence along the front, combined with weak ascent amid falling mid-level heights, will support storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Where stronger mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) is present, shear will support supercells. However, it is unclear whether this stronger mid-level flow will overlap the most favorable zone for storms. Timing and amplitude of the mid-level trough remain uncertain at this time. If this stronger flow overspreads the most favorable thermodynamic zone where storms are anticipated, a Slight Risk may be justified in the ArkLaTex, but model spread remains too large at this time. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Discussion... A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere across eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday morning. A moist airmass with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be in place downstream of these thunderstorms. Only modest weakening of the low-level jet will occur Tuesday morning and therefore, this MCS should remain through much of the day. If sufficient destabilization can occur across Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western TN/KY, some marginal damaging wind threat could accompany this MCS as it moves east through the morning and into the afternoon. Farther west, moderate destabilization is expected across the ArkLaTex and north Texas. A cold front will strengthen/sharpen across Oklahoma and move southeast through the day. Convergence along the front, combined with weak ascent amid falling mid-level heights, will support storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Where stronger mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) is present, shear will support supercells. However, it is unclear whether this stronger mid-level flow will overlap the most favorable zone for storms. Timing and amplitude of the mid-level trough remain uncertain at this time. If this stronger flow overspreads the most favorable thermodynamic zone where storms are anticipated, a Slight Risk may be justified in the ArkLaTex, but model spread remains too large at this time. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2025 Read more