Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are possible by the afternoon. ...Discussion... A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River. Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon. A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear should be in place will support supercell structures, although a mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2025 Read more