Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated
with a tropical wave is located well southwest of the Baja
California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system is
possible late this weekend through early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

688
ABNT20 KNHC 181720
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181720
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota this evening into tonight. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. ...Virginia/North Carolina to the Mid-South... Late morning surface analysis places a stationary front draped from west to east from the mid MS Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states. Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery shows a couple of weak MCVs moving east over the northern VA/MD vicinity and over far eastern KY. The latter disturbance will probably prove instrumental in aiding storm development across VA into northern NC this afternoon. South of the front, rich low-level moisture and heating will act to offset weak mid-level lapse rates and yield moderate to strong buoyancy from southeast MO eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Early indications of a swelling cumulus field over the WV/VA mountains will gradually evolve into a cluster of storms as convective inhibition continues to erode through early afternoon. Other clusters of storms will develop and move west to east given marginal deep-layer mean westerly flow. Although small hail 0.50-1.00 inch in diameter is possible with the strongest cores, the primary hazard with the stronger storms will be damaging gusts (50-65 mph) with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. This activity will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...South Dakota/Nebraska into Minnesota/Iowa... Gradual low-level moistening is forecast through this evening ahead of a weak front forecast to be in place over the eastern Dakotas into western NE. An initially appreciable capping inversion will inhibit surface-based storm development until heating gradually weakens inhibition by late afternoon. A very unstable airmass is forecast by late afternoon/early evening, but nebulous forcing lends uncertainty in terms of storm development/timing. Models suggest storms will primarily develop this evening associated with strengthening low-level theta-e advection. Supercells are possible early in the convective life cycle with a risk for all hazards, including the possibility for a couple of tornadoes, but large hail may be the main hazard. Upscale growth into a cluster or MCS is possible near the terminus of a southwesterly 850-mb LLJ with severe gusts the becoming the primary threat. Models vary considerably whether storm intensity is maintained through much of the overnight and beyond the Day-1 period, or if a gradual diminishing in severe occurs. ...Great Basin into Wyoming and Far Southern Montana... Initially high-based convection should develop this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin into WY as modest ascent associated with a weak/low-amplitude mid-level impulse spreads eastward across these areas. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a deep, very well-mixed boundary layer should support isolated severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorms. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present this afternoon across parts of southern MT into northern/eastern WY, generally along/east of the Bighorn/Laramie Mountains. Isolated severe hail may occur with marginal supercells given greater instability/shear forecast across these areas. ..Smith/Weinman.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota this evening into tonight. Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. ...Virginia/North Carolina to the Mid-South... Late morning surface analysis places a stationary front draped from west to east from the mid MS Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states. Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery shows a couple of weak MCVs moving east over the northern VA/MD vicinity and over far eastern KY. The latter disturbance will probably prove instrumental in aiding storm development across VA into northern NC this afternoon. South of the front, rich low-level moisture and heating will act to offset weak mid-level lapse rates and yield moderate to strong buoyancy from southeast MO eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Early indications of a swelling cumulus field over the WV/VA mountains will gradually evolve into a cluster of storms as convective inhibition continues to erode through early afternoon. Other clusters of storms will develop and move west to east given marginal deep-layer mean westerly flow. Although small hail 0.50-1.00 inch in diameter is possible with the strongest cores, the primary hazard with the stronger storms will be damaging gusts (50-65 mph) with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. This activity will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...South Dakota/Nebraska into Minnesota/Iowa... Gradual low-level moistening is forecast through this evening ahead of a weak front forecast to be in place over the eastern Dakotas into western NE. An initially appreciable capping inversion will inhibit surface-based storm development until heating gradually weakens inhibition by late afternoon. A very unstable airmass is forecast by late afternoon/early evening, but nebulous forcing lends uncertainty in terms of storm development/timing. Models suggest storms will primarily develop this evening associated with strengthening low-level theta-e advection. Supercells are possible early in the convective life cycle with a risk for all hazards, including the possibility for a couple of tornadoes, but large hail may be the main hazard. Upscale growth into a cluster or MCS is possible near the terminus of a southwesterly 850-mb LLJ with severe gusts the becoming the primary threat. Models vary considerably whether storm intensity is maintained through much of the overnight and beyond the Day-1 period, or if a gradual diminishing in severe occurs. ...Great Basin into Wyoming and Far Southern Montana... Initially high-based convection should develop this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin into WY as modest ascent associated with a weak/low-amplitude mid-level impulse spreads eastward across these areas. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a deep, very well-mixed boundary layer should support isolated severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorms. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present this afternoon across parts of southern MT into northern/eastern WY, generally along/east of the Bighorn/Laramie Mountains. Isolated severe hail may occur with marginal supercells given greater instability/shear forecast across these areas. ..Smith/Weinman.. 07/18/2025 Read more