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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the Rockies into the Midwest and Northeast today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Interior West, while lee surface troughing will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the Rockies into the Midwest and Northeast today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Interior West, while lee surface troughing will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the Rockies into the Midwest and Northeast today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Interior West, while lee surface troughing will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the Rockies into the Midwest and Northeast today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Interior West, while lee surface troughing will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 02:35:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 03:27:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 02:35:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 02:35:20 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 149 FOPZ14 KNHC 220232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 1 7( 8) 22(30) 3(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) L CARDENAS 34 6 15(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ZIHUATANEJO 34 11 9(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 100W 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 6 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 34(45) 1(46) X(46) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 3(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 44(60) 2(62) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 2(36) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 725 WTPZ44 KNHC 220232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 900 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 Narda hasn't become significantly better organized on satellite images over the past several hours. Convective banding features are not yet well defined, and the overall cloud pattern is still somewhat elongated from east to west. The system is currently experiencing moderate east-northeasterly shear. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt which is the mean of subjective Dvorak values from TAFB and SAB. The motion appears to be continuing toward the northwest, or around 305/9 kt. Global models show a mid-level ridge strengthening to the north of Narda during the next couple of days. This environmental flow evolution should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours or so, which should keep the center to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest corrected and simple consensus predictions, TVCN and HCCA. This is very similar to the previous official forecast. Late in the forecast period, the ridge to the north weakens, which should result in a northward turn. Narda is expected to continue to be affected by moderate vertical wind shear for the next several days. However, the tropical cyclone should remain embedded in a very moist air mass and situated over a very warm oceans through the middle of the forecast period. The intensity model guidance is in good agreement that the system will strengthen into a hurricane within 36-48 hours and should continue to intensity until SSTs gradually lower later in the week. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance and just slightly above the latest HCCA prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 15.3N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 15.9N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 16.3N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 16.5N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 16.4N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.9N 116.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 17.7N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 975 WTPZ34 KNHC 220231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 900 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025 ...NARDA LIKELY TO INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 100.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 100.5 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn to the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow. Narda should be moving faster to the west by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal sections of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NARDA LIKELY TO INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Sep 21 the center of Narda was located near 15.3, -100.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 398 WTPZ24 KNHC 220231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.9N 101.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 103.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 105.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 107.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.9N 116.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.7N 121.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 100.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

MD 2114 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616... Valid 220056Z - 220230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually decrease in intensity over the next few hours. Until then, isolated wind/hail threat will continue, primarily across southern and eastern portions of ww616. New watch will not be issued. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters that evolved along/near surface front, along the northern plume of steep low-level lapse rates, continue propagating southeast early this evening. Midlevel flow is becoming more northwesterly as the southern Plains short-wave trough approaches the Arklatex. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited fairly steep lapse rates through 4-5km, with substantial PW values, though possibly contaminated by nearby storms. As nocturnal cooling weakens buoyancy, updrafts should gradually weaken. Latest radar trends suggest this is already taking place. Even so, low-level inflow remains favorable for this activity to propagate across much of the remainder of north central TX, with at least an isolated wind/hail risk for the next few hours. Greatest concentration of robust storms will likely extend along a corridor from Erath-Dallas/Ellis County through 03z. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32659863 33349661 32949619 32609680 32279827 32659863 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible with storms this evening across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Other strong to locally severe storms may continue through the evening from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...North Texas into the Ozarks... Storms have generally diminished in coverage and intensity this evening across north Texas, due to increasing MLCINH and warming midlevel temperatures (as noted in regional 00Z soundings), though a favorably veering wind profile and steep lapse rates below 500 mb will continue to support potential for an isolated supercell or two and an attendant threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, for as long as vigorous convection persists this evening. Farther northeast, a modest southwesterly low-level jet may help to maintain storms into late tonight from eastern OK into northwest AR. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could support localized strong/damaging gusts and marginal hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA... Isolated cells have produced sporadic severe hail across parts of southern MN late this afternoon into the early evening, to the south of a mid/upper-level cyclone over central MN. Some redevelopment remains possible this evening, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will continue to support potential for occasionally organized cells with an isolated hail threat. Some clustering is possible late tonight, which could be accompanied by locally gusty winds, but increasing low-level stability may temper the damaging-wind threat. ..Dean.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible with storms this evening across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Other strong to locally severe storms may continue through the evening from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...North Texas into the Ozarks... Storms have generally diminished in coverage and intensity this evening across north Texas, due to increasing MLCINH and warming midlevel temperatures (as noted in regional 00Z soundings), though a favorably veering wind profile and steep lapse rates below 500 mb will continue to support potential for an isolated supercell or two and an attendant threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, for as long as vigorous convection persists this evening. Farther northeast, a modest southwesterly low-level jet may help to maintain storms into late tonight from eastern OK into northwest AR. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could support localized strong/damaging gusts and marginal hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA... Isolated cells have produced sporadic severe hail across parts of southern MN late this afternoon into the early evening, to the south of a mid/upper-level cyclone over central MN. Some redevelopment remains possible this evening, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will continue to support potential for occasionally organized cells with an isolated hail threat. Some clustering is possible late tonight, which could be accompanied by locally gusty winds, but increasing low-level stability may temper the damaging-wind threat. ..Dean.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible with storms this evening across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Other strong to locally severe storms may continue through the evening from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...North Texas into the Ozarks... Storms have generally diminished in coverage and intensity this evening across north Texas, due to increasing MLCINH and warming midlevel temperatures (as noted in regional 00Z soundings), though a favorably veering wind profile and steep lapse rates below 500 mb will continue to support potential for an isolated supercell or two and an attendant threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, for as long as vigorous convection persists this evening. Farther northeast, a modest southwesterly low-level jet may help to maintain storms into late tonight from eastern OK into northwest AR. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could support localized strong/damaging gusts and marginal hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA... Isolated cells have produced sporadic severe hail across parts of southern MN late this afternoon into the early evening, to the south of a mid/upper-level cyclone over central MN. Some redevelopment remains possible this evening, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will continue to support potential for occasionally organized cells with an isolated hail threat. Some clustering is possible late tonight, which could be accompanied by locally gusty winds, but increasing low-level stability may temper the damaging-wind threat. ..Dean.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible with storms this evening across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Other strong to locally severe storms may continue through the evening from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...North Texas into the Ozarks... Storms have generally diminished in coverage and intensity this evening across north Texas, due to increasing MLCINH and warming midlevel temperatures (as noted in regional 00Z soundings), though a favorably veering wind profile and steep lapse rates below 500 mb will continue to support potential for an isolated supercell or two and an attendant threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, for as long as vigorous convection persists this evening. Farther northeast, a modest southwesterly low-level jet may help to maintain storms into late tonight from eastern OK into northwest AR. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could support localized strong/damaging gusts and marginal hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA... Isolated cells have produced sporadic severe hail across parts of southern MN late this afternoon into the early evening, to the south of a mid/upper-level cyclone over central MN. Some redevelopment remains possible this evening, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will continue to support potential for occasionally organized cells with an isolated hail threat. Some clustering is possible late tonight, which could be accompanied by locally gusty winds, but increasing low-level stability may temper the damaging-wind threat. ..Dean.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible with storms this evening across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Other strong to locally severe storms may continue through the evening from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. ...North Texas into the Ozarks... Storms have generally diminished in coverage and intensity this evening across north Texas, due to increasing MLCINH and warming midlevel temperatures (as noted in regional 00Z soundings), though a favorably veering wind profile and steep lapse rates below 500 mb will continue to support potential for an isolated supercell or two and an attendant threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, for as long as vigorous convection persists this evening. Farther northeast, a modest southwesterly low-level jet may help to maintain storms into late tonight from eastern OK into northwest AR. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could support localized strong/damaging gusts and marginal hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA... Isolated cells have produced sporadic severe hail across parts of southern MN late this afternoon into the early evening, to the south of a mid/upper-level cyclone over central MN. Some redevelopment remains possible this evening, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will continue to support potential for occasionally organized cells with an isolated hail threat. Some clustering is possible late tonight, which could be accompanied by locally gusty winds, but increasing low-level stability may temper the damaging-wind threat. ..Dean.. 09/22/2025 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ABI TO 40 W MWL TO 30 SW GYI TO 10 E ADM. ..SPC..09/22/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-069-095-220140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN JOHNSTON MARSHALL TXC085-113-121-133-181-363-367-429-439-497-220140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND GRAYSON PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS TARRANT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ABI TO 40 W MWL TO 30 SW GYI TO 10 E ADM. ..SPC..09/22/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-069-095-220140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN JOHNSTON MARSHALL TXC085-113-121-133-181-363-367-429-439-497-220140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND GRAYSON PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS TARRANT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more