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Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025 2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 99.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 99.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 100.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

MD 2108 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 2108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern into eastern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211824Z - 212030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A northeasterly moving cluster of storms may produce isolated wind damage as low-level lapse rates become more favorable this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A weak MCV in northern Kentucky has promoted the development of a small cluster of storms in southern Ohio. This activity is expected to move northeast through the afternoon. The morning observed sounding from Wilmington suggests that MLCIN has just now eroded as temperatures have risen into the low/mid 80s F. Continued heating should steepen low-level lapse rates further. The KILN VAD shows under 20 kts of 0-6 km shear and the mid-level lapse rates observed on the sounding were also quite modest (~6 C/km). Without stronger low-level flow or more robust updrafts, the potential for wind damage with this cluster is likely to remain spatially and temporally limited. ..Wendt/Smith.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 38448389 39128454 39898397 41178249 41208158 40758133 39348222 38498318 38448389 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications outlined below. ...Ozarks... 5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR, which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe winds. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening. ...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas... Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution. However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by mid-evening. ..Moore.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley. Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely diminishes after sunset. Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of heating. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa... A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this activity weakens by late evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to previous forecast. Ridging will quickly build over the Northwest as a mid-level trough translates southeastward nearing the Colorado Plateau by late Monday. The influx of a dry, post frontal air mass across the West will redirect thunderstorm potential towards the Continental Divide. Rising mid-level heights and development of coastal thermal trough will support quickly rebounding temperatures and low relative humidity along and west of the coastal ranges from WA to northern CA. The overall light winds and marginal fuels should limit wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough is forecast to traverse the northern Rockies on Monday, bringing a cold front to the northern and central Great Plains. However, there is no appreciable overlap between receptive fuels, strong surface winds, low relative humidity, or the occurrence of dry thunderstorms across the continental U.S. to support fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more