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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast. Ongoing light easterly winds Tuesday morning across the Cascades, aided by surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and a thermal trough along the West Coast, will gradually subside into Tuesday afternoon. A very dry air mass across the West will promote poor RH recoveries Tuesday morning in higher elevation areas of the Cascades, with single digit relative humidity likely by Tuesday afternoon across lower valleys of northern CA, southern OR and northern NV. Locally elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels are possible through favored Cascade gaps but a widespread fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Interior West, as lee surface troughing and an associated moist low-level airmass prevails east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, the aforementioned conditions will limit significant, widespread wildfire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment with recent trends. The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air mass leaving more stable conditions. Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5% tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear, this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded circulations and potential for a tornado or two. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over the West. ...Southern/Central Plains... Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by 60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough, will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE. Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode. ...IA-WI... Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds with height through mid/upper levels. ...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico... Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 14:34:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2025 15:27:44 GMT

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air mass. Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible, especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air mass. Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible, especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air mass. Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible, especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air mass. Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible, especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air mass. Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible, especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 Read more