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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning. Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop. Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse rates/instability. ...South Texas into Louisiana... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning. Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop. Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse rates/instability. ...South Texas into Louisiana... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning. Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop. Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse rates/instability. ...South Texas into Louisiana... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning. Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop. Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse rates/instability. ...South Texas into Louisiana... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over the Mid Atlantic. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas... A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight. Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless, outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK. As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm development which may limit instability. ...Mid Atlantic... Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours. ...Central TX... As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft. Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential overnight. ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over the Mid Atlantic. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas... A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight. Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless, outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK. As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm development which may limit instability. ...Mid Atlantic... Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours. ...Central TX... As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft. Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential overnight. ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over the Mid Atlantic. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas... A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight. Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless, outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK. As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm development which may limit instability. ...Mid Atlantic... Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours. ...Central TX... As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft. Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential overnight. ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over the Mid Atlantic. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas... A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight. Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless, outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK. As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm development which may limit instability. ...Mid Atlantic... Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours. ...Central TX... As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft. Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential overnight. ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over the Mid Atlantic. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas... A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight. Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless, outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK. As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm development which may limit instability. ...Mid Atlantic... Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours. ...Central TX... As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft. Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential overnight. ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over the Mid Atlantic. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas... A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight. Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless, outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK. As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm development which may limit instability. ...Mid Atlantic... Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours. ...Central TX... As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft. Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential overnight. ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025 Read more

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 21 Sep 2025 20:27:31 GMT

645
ABPZ20 KNHC 230518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

MD 2121 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 230407Z - 230600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to expand in areal coverage over the central Plains. Hail/wind threat continues. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale support appears to be correlated with an arcing band of convection from southwest KS-eastern OK/TX Panhandles. The northern most portion of this line may actually be associated with a weak midlevel vort. 1km flow is gradually increasing across western OK into south central KS, with 25-35kt now common. Current thinking is thunderstorms will gradually expand in areal coverage along the leading edge of the LLJ, immediately ahead of the aforementioned midlevel vort, within the zone of strongest low-level warm advection. Some hail is likely with the strongest updrafts, but gusty winds may also be noted along the leading edge of the arcing band of convection, possibly extending a bit south of the watch across northwestern OK. An MCS may ultimately evolve over southern KS/northern OK which should propagate east into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36530130 38830200 38839792 36539734 36530130 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ..Nauslar.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ..Nauslar.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ..Nauslar.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ..Nauslar.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ..Nauslar.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to track over central California while the strong westerly mid-level flow moves over southwest Canada and just over the border into the northwestern US. An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will remain, but a cold front will continue to push southeast through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of it. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in portions of central California into the Bay Area, Central Valley, and central Sierra. However, recent rainfall and anticipated wetter thunderstorms and showers with longer precipitation duration will mitigate fire weather concerns. Minimum RH of 5-20% will continue across far northern California, much of Oregon, central/eastern Washington, and western/northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of the Sacramento Valley vicinity as southerly winds increase ahead of the upper low and before RH rises. Additionally, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are possible in portions of northern Montana during the afternoon. However, the marginal fire weather coupled with marginal fuel receptiveness, precludes issuing any areas. ..Nauslar.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak, quasi-Omega Block will be present over the CONUS, with an upper low on the southern/central California Coast, an upper high over Idaho, and another upper low over the Great Lakes. A thermal trough will remain along the West Coast, but it will begin to weaken and retreat southward later in the day and overnight. Locally elevated conditions are possible west of the Cascades in Oregon and into northwest California as the offshore pressure gradient remains in place amid a hot/dry airmass. East-northeast winds with gusts of 15-30 mph are likely during the morning and into the afternoon through favored Cascade gaps. RH in the single digits to the teens are expected across southern Oregon, northern California, and northern Nevada. ..Nauslar.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more